158
FXUS63 KMPX 072058
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
POPCORN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CTG LIGHTNING.
MANY OF THESE LOOK TO BE VERY BOUNDARY DRIVEN, POPPING UP AS
THAT FORCING MOVES THROUGH AND THEN FIZZLING OUT AFTER ABOUT
10-20 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET,
WHICH IS ALSO AROUND THE TIME OUR INCOMING COLD FRONT (AND LINE
OF STORMS) WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THAT THIS LINE WILL PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO MN, BUT IT SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME IN EASTERN MN IS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN CLOSER TO 3AM BEFORE IT MOVES
COMPLETELY INTO WESTERN WI.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW ROUGHLY A
80-100% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA,
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. GUSTS FALL OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER, BUT HI-RES
MODELS, SUCH AS THE 15Z RAP, SUGGEST IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A 20-25 MPH GUST AS FAR EAST AS EAU
CLAIRE. A STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS AIR WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW, PRIMARILY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF THEN, A PERSISTENT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, QPF LOOKS TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE
TENTHS AT MOST FOR AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THE SHOWERS.
THE LOW EVENTUALLY EXITS EAST, ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US -- REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARDS. THIS COULD SET UP MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. THE
CSU ML GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SEE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALBEIT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% CHANCE RIGHT
NOW WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL COMING INTO FOCUS THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TODAY, BUT SPARSE COVERAGE LED TO THE USE OF
PROB30S. COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED WITH IT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY, BUT WILL
QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO THE WNW WITH THE FROPA TONIGHT.
KMSP...STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 20-22Z TIMEFRAME HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST CHANCE.
FORCING DOES ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED IN THE TIMING OF IT OVERNIGHT, WITH THAT 7Z TO 9Z WINDOW
HAVING THE GREATEST SHRA/TSRA PATTERN. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD (LATE SUNDAY MORNING) WE WILL LIKELY START SEEING
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS PUSHING 25 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. AFTN -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...PV
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