513
FXUS63 KMPX 080357
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
POPCORN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CTG LIGHTNING.
MANY OF THESE LOOK TO BE VERY BOUNDARY DRIVEN, POPPING UP AS
THAT FORCING MOVES THROUGH AND THEN FIZZLING OUT AFTER ABOUT
10-20 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET,
WHICH IS ALSO AROUND THE TIME OUR INCOMING COLD FRONT (AND LINE
OF STORMS) WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THAT THIS LINE WILL PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO MN, BUT IT SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IT TRAVELS
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME IN EASTERN
MN IS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN CLOSER TO 3AM BEFORE IT
MOVES COMPLETELY INTO WESTERN WI.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW ROUGHLY A
80-100% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA,
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. GUSTS FALL OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER, BUT HI-RES
MODELS, SUCH AS THE 15Z RAP, SUGGEST IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A 20-25 MPH GUST AS FAR EAST AS EAU
CLAIRE. A STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS AIR WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW, PRIMARILY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF THEN, A PERSISTENT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, QPF LOOKS TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE
TENTHS AT MOST FOR AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THE SHOWERS.
THE LOW EVENTUALLY EXITS EAST, ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US -- REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARDS. THIS COULD SET UP MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. THE
CSU ML GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SEE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALBEIT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% CHANCE RIGHT
NOW WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL COMING INTO FOCUS THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN WHERE
THERE IS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF RA/TSRA STEADILY SLIDING
EASTWARD. PER CAMS, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS
MN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO WI PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TEMPO
MENTION AT ALL SITES IN THIS CYCLE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMING. MVFR LIKELY, IFR STILL POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY,
UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER SURFACE
VISIBILITY WILL BE IMPACTED SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION OUT AT THIS
POINT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RA/TSRA ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
GENERALLY AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE SO THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE
07/12Z TAFS.
KMSP...WILL LOOK FOR A ROUND OF RA/TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION AND LAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SURFACE
IMPACTS SO HAVE KEPT FU MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE
06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING, SO HAVE RUN WITH PREVAILING
SHRA BUT STILL THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL TSRA PRIOR
TO OR DURING THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. AFTN -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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