635
FXUS63 KMPX 081832
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
132 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 LOW IS UP OVER WINNIPEG THIS MORNING. WE'VE SEEN
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST WAS ON THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS NEARING LADYSMITH AND RICE
LIKE AT 330 THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND THIS IS BEING FORCED BY LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE PV
ANOMALY. WE'LL DRY OUT BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY THIS MORNING WHILE WE
WAIT ON THE COLD CORE MOISTURE TO GET INTO CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE PV ANOMALY AND THE COLD CORE CLOUD COVER, WE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SURFACE BASED SMOKE, AS EVIDENCED
BY THE 3 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD CORE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WAS JUST NORTH OF BISMARK AT 3AM. AS
THIS COLD CORE CLOUD COVER SAGS INTO CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI
THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER STRONG VORT MAX WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN MN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MPX AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN WI
AND THIN OUT TO THE WEST, WITH IT LIKELY TO STAY DRY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
60S. DON'T WORRY THOUGH, WE CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SEND HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A WARM FRONT TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER, THIS WARM FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH THROUGH DAY ON
THURSDAY, THEN GET NUDGED BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN MN
CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE
TRIGGERED BY LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ, BUT WITH SPEEDS OF JUST 10
TO 20 KTS AND NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT, THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SETUP LOOKS LOW, THOUGH AN ELEVATED HAIL
THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 2K TO 3K J/KG OF MUCAPE FEEDING INTO
THE BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, BUT IT'S THURSDAY NIGHT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST CONCERNING TIMEFRAME DURING THIS STRETCH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE COMING IN ALOFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH THE LLJ KICKING
UP INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FORCING AND
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR A BETTER EXCESSIVE RAIN SETUP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, THE EPS FAVORS
CENTRAL MN FOR SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IMPACTS THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT BEFORE WE CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT WILL SETUP THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY, THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
LIKELY TO BE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA, BUT THERE'S A LOT OF CONVECTION TO
WORK THROUGH GOING BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE'LL HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THINGS WILL BE COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND, TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE EPS SHOWS H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE PAIRED WITH A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO DRY US OUT AND ALSO KEEP HIGHS COMFORTABLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NBM DOES CONTINUE POPS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH THE BROAD BRUSHED 20S AND 30S IT HAS IS BELOW OUR
CLIMATOLOGY POP, WHICH IS AS HIGH AS IT GETS ALL YEAR AT 40%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND WILDFIRE SMOKE WRAPPED
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW PROB30 AND TEMPO
GROUPS HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THAT FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR, POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR IN SOME SPOTS FURTHER
NORTH.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON (LIKELY NOT
AS STRONG).
KMSP...BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT
TIMES. A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5-6K FT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL SPAWN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN. BY SUNSET,
GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND WE'LL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
BROADER AREA OF RAIN ADVECTS SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BED
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