990
FXUS63 KMPX 090003
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ALIGNS WITH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED THUS FAR FROM THIS
FORCING, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. THERE WERE
A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EAU CLAIRE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. AS WE REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO VORTICITY MAXIMUMS, SMOKE HAS MADE ITS
WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD CLEAR BY THE EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE
SMOKE'S DEPARTURE, NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE. COLD AIR WILL
ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL SHOW IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH PWATS ONLY 70-80% OF NORMAL, LITTLE
ACCUMULATION (T TO 0.05") IS EXPECTED AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS, MUCH LIKE
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS, WILL RETURN.
THIS GO-AROUND WILL FAVOR WESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH
WESTERN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LIKELY REMAINING DRY. FOR MOST,
MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR A WHILE AS
THINGS LOOK TO WARM UP TUESDAY ONWARD. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BRUSH
THE AREA WITH WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD,
ALLOWING SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY WEDNESDAY, THE 80S
WILL STICK AROUND AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH JUST TO OUR
SOUTH AND BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT.
THESE CHANCES LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH FORECAST PWATS IN THE 150% OF NORMAL RANGE, THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WHEN WE COULD SEE 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS OF
GREATER THAN A HALF INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT, IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE ALIGNMENT OF THE FORCING AND
WHERE THE LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT THREE DAY QPF AMOUNTS
ARE GREATER THAN AN INCH FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE MPX CWA, BUT
THAT CAN AND WILL CHANGE AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. LOOKING
AT FORECAST POPS, THE NBM HAS A WIDE TEMPORAL RANGE WITH >50%
RUNNING FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THINGS
GET CLOSER, THIS WINDOW WILL LIKELY SHORTEN AND WE WILL GAIN A
BETTER GRASP ON WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR NOW, THE TAKEAWAY IS TO STAY
UP-TO-DATE WITH THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE ANY PLANS MID TO LATE
WEEK. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE, BUT THE PIECES HAVE TO COME
TOGETHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
ANOTHER TRICKY TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF NUISANCE
SHOWERS ACROSS EACH TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST TIMING
OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 3 MAIN TIMEFRAMES:
1) FIRST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF INITIALIZATION.
2) MAIN BATCH OVERNIGHT.
3) POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
EACH ROUND MAY BRING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY ROTATES AWAY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD.
KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA IN WESTERN MN WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT THE
MOST LIKELY STEADY/HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL COME AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO END PRIOR TO THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BUT THE
TIMING IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...JPC
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