165
FXUS63 KMPX 091155
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY START TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TODAY.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING SOME SATELLITE IMAGERY EYE
CANDY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US/SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A TRACE TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. ONGOING CAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY PRODUCE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. SMOKE ALOFT WILL RETURN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW
SLIDES EAST, BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY TO OUR EAST, WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES
WARMER WITH THE BUFFALO RIDGE MAKING A RUN AT 90 AND LOW TO MID
80S ELSEWHERE. THE SMOKE ALOFT SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT MODELS HINT AT SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
SETTLING IN ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
700MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS KEEP SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO A MINIMUM.
HAVE SOME LOW (< 20%) POPS FOR TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE
THE FIRST FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE KEPT THE FRONT JUST SHY
OF MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. THIS WOULD PREVENT THE 60 TDS FROM
GETTING INTO THE MPX AREA AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THIS AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK,
WHICH RUNS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, AS WELL AS THE MARGINAL ERO
THAT COVERS A BROADER AREA (INCLUDING MORE OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA) FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ULTIMATELY, THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS IN
TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN (QPF
OF 1"+) IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME LOOKS BETTER IN TERMS OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 500MB
TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
AN OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL WORK INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5" OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LIKE THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, THIS LATE WEEK ONE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD, WHICH WOULD ONCE AGAIN PUT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA UNDER
THE GUN FOR THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS. OF COURSE, MORE WOBBLES ARE
EXPECTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS, BUT 3 DAY QPF AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
EXCEED 1" FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH AS MUCH AS 2.5"+ AS YOU
HEAD SOUTH TO THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. MORE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAINFALL BEFORE THINGS
GRADUALLY WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MID JUNE NORMALS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
IT'S A VERY FALL LOOK TO SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, WITH AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW, WHICH
IS OVER NORTHWEST WI THIS MORNING. THIS STRATUS FIELD WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE DAY, BECOMING MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAPPENING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. HREF THUNDER
PROBABILITIES WOULD SAY WE DON'T SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY, WITH THE
CONVECTION BEING PRETTY SHALLOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CENTRAL
MN INTO WESTERN WI UNTIL THE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
KMSP...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
FROM 16Z TO 22Z TODAY, SO CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 FOR THAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT RAIN WITH THOSE SHOWERS, WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GENERATION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND ENE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. MVFR/CHC IFR AT NIGHT. TSRA LIKELY. WIND E 10-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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