633
FXUS63 KMPX 100357
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
THERE CERTAINLY IS NO SHORTAGE OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND INTO MUCH OF WI. AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST,
WARMER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SLIGHT RIDGING WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OUR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
ACTIVITY, HOWEVER A SMALL KINK IN THE WAVE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
WILL FUEL SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS A STALLED
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
CLASHES WITH A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN EASTWARDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THIS
REGION, RESULTING IN A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING (FAVORED
TO BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DAY 3 WPC
ERO). AS WPC NOTES, INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIG LIMITING FACTOR
WITH MODELS KEEPING THAT BOUNDARY (AND THE JUICY 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS) FURTHER SOUTH. WITHOUT CONVECTION, THE STRATIFORM
SHOWERS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING RISK.
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOILS ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL IN
THE AREA.
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
THE BOUNDARY LARGELY REMAINING NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER, BUT
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS. THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CEILING FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, EVEN SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN MN POTENTIALLY. THE EURO ENSEMBLE PRODUCES SOME BULLISH
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS (2"+), WHEREAS THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE ARE CLOSER TO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN AS 24 HOUR
MAXIMUMS. INVESTIGATING MORE INTO EACH OF THE EPS MEMBERS
REVEALED THAT THE HIGHER TOTALS WERE TIED TO GREATER MUCAPE
VALUES, SUGGESTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ONCE ALL IS SAID AND DONE, FOLKS COULD BE LOOKING AT
1"+ IN CENTRAL MN & WESTERN WI, AND 2.5"+ ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL US HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT OUR MOISTURE FLOW COULD BE CUT OFF BY A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE NBM HAS KEPT SPORADIC
10-30% POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THIS TIME PERIOD DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT LIKE WE COULD HAVE DURING THIS WEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HINT TOWARDS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK,
WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUING OUR RAINY
JUNE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
GENERALLY CLEAN AND VFR TAF SET. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY ON, THEN ALL SITES GO VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. MID- TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
RETURN TOMORROW DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE FROM PASSING SMOKE ALOFT. GENERALLY
WESTERLY WINDS, VARYING FROM NW TO SW THEN BACK TO NW OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS DURATION WITH SPEEDS 5-15KTS.
KMSP...PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
ELEVATED HIGH CLOUDS/SMOKE EXPECTED. BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS AT
INITIALIZATION WILL SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM NW TO SW THEN BACK TO NW OVER THE COURSE
OF THIS DURATION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC RA/TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR LIKELY LATE, CHC IFR. WIND E
10 KTS.
FRI...RA/MVFR LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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