044
FXUS63 KMPX 110843
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.
- BRIEF BREAK FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE NEAR DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE FOUND THE SWEET
SPOT ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE
MEAGER CAPE, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C AND ADEQUATE SHEAR HAVE
SUSTAINED A NARROW, BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA
BORDER BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR STILL THE FOCUS FOR 0.5-1"+
OF RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT
MAKES IT, A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THAT WE DON'T QUITE TAP INTO THE
TDS OF 60F+ AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STAYS IN NORTHERN IOWA.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WILMAR THROUGH THE TWIN
CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE WILL SEE QPF DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH THOSE NORTH
OF ST. CLOUD LUCKY TO SEE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A NOTABLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND WPC HAS FOLLOWED SUIT AND SHIFTED
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO THAT IT'S NEARLY PERFECTLY
CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. PWATS OF
1.5"+ ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO 1.75" OVERNIGHT WITH THE LLJ. THIS WILL BE THE
TIMEFRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 1-2" (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS) EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WISE,
HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY CHILLY BY MID JUNE STANDARDS WITH AREAS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BARELY MANAGING
TO HIT 60. SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WE SEE A SHORT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY, BUT STILL ON THE
COOLER SIDE BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF WAA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS, THE SECOND
HALF OF THE MONTH CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF DURATION BUT
IT'S THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL SHRA/RA THAT IS THE TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS TAF DURATION. KMPX RADAR HAS DEPICTED ECHOES FROM
AROUND THE MADISON MN AREA TO NEAR ALBERT LEA MN, BUT THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND PUBLIC REPORTS OF SHRA
AROUND MKT SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO RWF-MKT GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR
THAT WILL MAKE IT PROBLEMATIC FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
THERE ARE BETTER SIGNS FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94, FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP
MENTION AT THAT TIME, WITH BEST CHANCES AT RWF-MKT-MSP. CHANCES
WILL BE MAINTAINED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM W TO N TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10KTS OR LESS. NO TS/CB ADVERTISED THIS
PERIOD, BUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR FLASH OF LIGHTNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING.
KMSP...NO ISSUES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MSP AREA BUT NO CB/TS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. WINDS 7KTS OR
LESS MAY HAVE SOME VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THEN BECOME N TO NE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR LIKELY LATE, CHC IFR. WIND E 10
KTS.
FRI...RA/MVFR LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC P.M. RA/MVFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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