808
FXUS63 KMPX 291818
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.
- NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO COME AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
IT HAS BEEN A BUSY PAST 12 HOURS... THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES AND AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE HAS
STALLED AND WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A KINK
IN THE MID LEVEL WILL BRING A LOBE OF VORTICITY OVER SOUTHERN
MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG A WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT. THESE WILL
PRIMARILY HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BASED
ON THE 2500+ J/KG OF CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO
7.5 C/KM. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS AS
PWAT VALUES COULD STILL BE 1.5"+ ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH STORMS WILL
DEVELOP, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE MORE SO ACROSS SW MN AND
WEST-CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO CENTRAL IA (NOTED BY THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK).
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT TIED TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL USHER OUT OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT, BUT CAMS VARY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT COMING OVERNIGHT, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH OF A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DURING THE DAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-94 UP TOWARDS THE TWIN PORTS AREA.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS THIS WEEK, WITH
RECOVERING TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES
IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST DAYS AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR STORM CHANCES
CONTINUES TO COME ON THE 4TH AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS SHOULD COME INTO FOCUS THIS WEEK, BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO BE A PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN THE UPTICK IN
OUTDOOR EVENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CAMS, AS A RESULT, PULLED
ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM THE TAFS. THAT'S NOT TO SAY WE'LL BE
DRY, IT JUST DOESN'T MEET THE PROB30 THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION.
THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS JUST WEST OF MSP & MKT
AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS VERY GRADUAL, WITH WEAK
FORCING, HENCE THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED BY THE
CAMS. TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS NEB INTO IOWA,
WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING,
BUT THERE'S A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING, SO KEPT RWF/MKT DRY
UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THIS PRECIP
WILL OCCUR.
KMSP...ALTHOUGH THE TAF IS DRY, YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE OF PRECIP IN CAMS BOTH DAYS IS TOO THIN TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SSE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG
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