972  
FXUS63 KMPX 140411  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1111 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.  
 
- PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND STORMS WILL BE  
LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3" ARE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
THIS AFTERNOON - EARLY FRIDAY...  
 
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI,  
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S.  
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT FOLKS MAY SENSE A HINT OF LINGERING WILDFIRE  
SMOKE OUTSIDE WHICH IS TIED TO A NARROW BAND OF SMOKE THAT HAS  
SETTLED SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST  
FROM MPCA SHOWS AIR QUALITY IN THE YELLOW CATEGORY AND NO AQA'S  
IN EFFECT. OUR ATTENTION TURNS FROM THE PRESENT TRANQUIL WEATHER  
TO THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN. IN FACT, REGIONAL RADAR  
DISPLAY SHOWS US THE START OF A CHANGE, WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING TO THE WEST ACROSS SD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS  
SUSTAINED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND EXPECTATIONS ARE  
THAT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY AS IT TURNS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE  
SD/MN BORDER. ADMITTEDLY, THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED  
TO RESOLVE THIS CONVECTION SO WILL FOLLOW GRADIENT TRENDS AND  
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MN.  
 
EVOLUTION OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN INITIAL  
SHORTWAVE DISPLACED FROM THE PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS  
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXPECTATION HAS BEEN FOR THIS WAVE  
TO KICK OFF DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN SD, WHICH WILL  
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. A 40+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WAVE. THE  
LLJ WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION, HOWEVER  
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE  
STILL MESSY, CAM SIGNAL IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATE  
TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING 30-40% POPS. COULD SEE A  
FEW AIRMASS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW.  
 
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A MATURE SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE  
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH  
INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER  
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN TOMORROW NIGHT.  
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE UPPER  
MIDWEST, WHERE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY, WE MAY HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS/WING OF WARM  
ADVECTION TOMORROW NIGHT, HOWEVER THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD  
DEEPER CONVECTION IS TRENDING TO BE LESS LIKELY.  
 
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND  
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED ON THE DRIER SIDE DURING THE  
DAYTIME HOURS. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MN/IA  
BORDER AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE THAT AIMS  
TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT, A POTENT ~594DM  
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS/EXTEND  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL "RIDE THE  
RIDGE" FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERSECT THE STALLED OUT  
BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT PWATS IN  
EXCESS OF 2" LOCALLY, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN  
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. IT'S SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE TO  
NARROW DOWN PRECIP WINDOWS AT THIS POINT, THOUGH CLOUD BEARING  
WIND/LOW-LEVEL JET RELATIONSHIP SUPPORTS SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND  
POTENTIAL BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF STORMS (ESPECIALLY THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND). NAILING DOWN PRECISE RAINFALL  
EXPECTATIONS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION IS ALSO A LOW CONFIDENCE PART  
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SETUP.  
HOWEVER, CANNOT DENY THE CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM THE GLOBAL  
ENSEMBLES THAT DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2" OF  
QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI ALONG THE  
I-94 CORRIDOR. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER EACH ROUND OF  
CONVECTION IS GOING TO TRACK OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OR  
"STAIR-STEP" SOUTHWARD EACH TIME PERIOD. OF COURSE, THE FIRST  
SCENARIO IS MUCH MORE CONCERNING WHEN IT COMES TO A LOCALIZED  
FLOOD THREAT -- AND IT IS THE ONE THAT IS ADVERTISED BY SOME OF  
THE MOST RECENT 12Z GUIDANCE.  
 
AT THIS POINT, IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
MN AND WESTERN WI WILL OBSERVE 1-2" OF QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3"+ APPEARING LIKELY. SLOW STORM  
MOTIONS AND TRAINING OVER ANY ONE AREA COULD SEE AMOUNTS CLIMB  
ABOVE 4", THOUGH WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR REAL TIME TRENDS AND  
SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS MOST  
LIKELY AXIS OF SUCH AN OCCURRENCE. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE  
INTO MONDAY, PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING  
AN END TO THE DAILY/NIGHTLY 30-50% STORM CHANCES AND DROP  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KAXN COULD SEE SOME  
-SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. KEAU COULD SEE  
SOME PATCH FOG DEVELOP. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH  
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  
 
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE  
CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS.  
LOOKING AHEAD, ON- AND-OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WIND S 10-15 KTS.  
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS,  
BECOMING E 10 KTS LATE.  
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.  
 
 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...STRUS  
AVIATION...JRB  
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