630
FXUS63 KMPX 140807
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF STAYING CONFINED TO
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY SIT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.
THESE STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND ARE MOVING VERY
LITTLE, IF AT ALL, WHICH HAS LEAD TO SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A PREVIEW OF WHAT'S TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, PWATS AOA 2", AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORK TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE TO AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF WHAT'S ONGOING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST ONCE THE LLJ WANES AND CONVECTION
OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, CAPE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THEY BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
BUT CAMS ARE NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
ONCE WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN CLEARS OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN, WHEN THE LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT, STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.
SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION, BUT THIS SET
UP APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS EVENING. THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A
NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STILL
SEE THEIR FAIR SHARE. OVERALL, QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 1.5-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3-4" NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KAXN COULD SEE SOME
-SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. KEAU COULD SEE
SOME PATCH FOG DEVELOP. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
LOOKING AHEAD, ON- AND-OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS,
BECOMING E 10 KTS LATE.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JRB
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