185  
FXUS63 KMPX 141149  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
649 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME  
PERIOD, BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF STAYING CONFINED TO  
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY SIT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.  
THESE STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND ARE MOVING VERY  
LITTLE, IF AT ALL, WHICH HAS LEAD TO SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A PREVIEW OF WHAT'S TO COME OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS  
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, PWATS AOA 2", AND A STALLED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WORK TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THE TO AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE  
MAJORITY OF WHAT'S ONGOING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING  
WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST ONCE THE LLJ WANES AND CONVECTION  
OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING SURFACE  
LOW IN NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE  
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH PLENTIFUL GULF  
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, CAPE VALUES  
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE  
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THEY BE ABLE TO  
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN  
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,  
BUT CAMS ARE NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.  
 
ONCE WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN CLEARS OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN, WHEN THE LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA  
OVERNIGHT, STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.  
SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION, BUT THIS SET  
UP APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAN THE  
PREVIOUS EVENING. THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A  
NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE  
RIDGE. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST INTO  
WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STILL  
SEE THEIR FAIR SHARE. OVERALL, QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 1.5-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
APPROACHING 3-4" NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR TS IS LOW ENOUGH AT MOST TAF SITES TO KEEP  
IT OUT, BUT DID INTRODUCE PROB30S FOR SHOWERS DURING THE BEST  
WINDOWS. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KTS THROUGH LATE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WIND S 10-15 KTS.  
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS,  
BECOMING E 10 KTS LATE.  
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.  
 
 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...DYE  
AVIATION...BORGHOFF  
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