862
FXUS63 KMPX 141811
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF STAYING CONFINED
TO SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY SIT ON THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ. THESE STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND ARE
MOVING VERY LITTLE, IF AT ALL, WHICH HAS LEAD TO SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A PREVIEW OF WHAT'S TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, PWATS AOA 2", AND A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORK TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE TO AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF WHAT'S ONGOING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST ONCE THE LLJ WANES AND CONVECTION
OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, CAPE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THEY BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF MINNESOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
BUT CAMS ARE NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
ONCE WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN CLEARS OUT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN, WHEN THE LLJ KICKS IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT, STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION, BUT THIS SET UP APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN,
BUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STILL SEE THEIR FAIR
SHARE. OVERALL, QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP 1.5-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3-4" NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
TRICKY TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO NUISANCE PASSING SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE MOSTLY HINTED AT A 18Z-00Z 6-HOUR WINDOW
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES, BUT WHILE SOME ECHOES
DO SHOW UP ON KMPX RADAR, SOME SITES IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SW MN HAVE REPORTED NOTHING OR JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. STILL,
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO GROW INTO ONES THAT PRODUCE TS OR SOME BRIEF
MOD/HEAVY RAIN SO DID INCLUDE THE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IT IS THE OVERNIGHT THAT HAS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTION TIMING/LOCATION.
THUS, WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE THINKING AS
NEEDED. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
KMSP...STILL ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT THE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT EAST. THE BIGGER
QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT IS A VIABLE
POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO EVEN ADD
A PROB30 AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS CURRENT ROUND
EVOLVES AND THEN IF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM
FROM THE TERMINAL BEFORE GOING AHEAD WITH ADDING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SHIFTING FROM S TO W TO
N, AROUND 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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