804
FXUS63 KMPX 150403
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1103 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS & SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
- A TREND TO A DRIER, COOLER PATTERN SETTING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THESE ARE PRIMARILY LIGHT & HAVE OFTEN BEEN VIRGA, BUT THERE IS MORE
MEANINGFUL RAIN TO FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM UP TODAY WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
OF US. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM W MN INTO W WI. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL, BUT
THERE IS A REMNANT MCV THAT MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHEAR PROFILE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT OF A
STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF DRY STRETCH WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY
DURING BUSINESS HOURS. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE & HUMIDITY. HOW BAD WILL IT BE? OUR FORECAST HAS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADD IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S & IT'LL BE A WARM ONE! OUR
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE "MAIN EVENT" OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE & A
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL FUEL THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT & MONDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
KICKER WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT'LL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET. THE SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO POOL ALONG & SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD KICK START CONVECTION FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5)
IS IN PLACE. RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SUPPORT CONVECTION CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN - INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE PROCESS. THE SPC INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER WESTERN & CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE INCREASED
WIND THREAT WITH AN MCS. THE LATEST HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WOULD EXPERIENCE THE ROUND OF SEVERE LATE FRIDAY WHILE AN
MCS MOVES THROUGH MN INTO W WI SATURDAY MORNING... THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS BUT THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
SEVERE GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE & ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN THE LATER WE GET
INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY AM LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD MOVE, BUT GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.75" TO 2.0", ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHILE
HAVING A PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL "FUEL".
SATURDAY SHOULD DRY OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR MOST FOLKS. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERY-
STORM GARBAGE SOMEWHERE GIVEN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A LESS
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN SEVERE - BUT SPC DAY 3 HAS A MARGINAL RISK.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TODAY ON WHERE STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS, IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A
NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ONCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO A
POINT WHERE WE CAN IDENTIFY AN AREA OF CONCERN. SUNDAY WILL WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED SHOWERS &
STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TO ME THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN & POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AS THINGS STAND AS OF 3PM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BETTER DEFINED WAVE THAT'LL MOVE
THROUGH AND PUSH OUT THE BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
LONG DURATION W/MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS/SHOWERS - THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL AREAS THAT RECEIVE 1 TO 3" BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5" NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LOOKING PAST MONDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT WE'LL A DRIER & COOLER
(OR LESS HUMID) PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SMALL AREA OF -TSRA WILL IMPACT KMSP, AND COULD HOLD ON FOR
KRNH, BUT IT SHOULD MISS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. COULD SEE
SOME STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN SAG SOUTH AND IMPACT KAXN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. DID ADD A PROB30 FOR -TSRA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE COULD
HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PAST KMSP BY THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL STORMS FRIDAY EVENING, AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, JUST ADDED A PROB30 FOR FRIDAY EVENING, AND
HELD OFF ON A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SHIFTING FROM S TO W TO
N, AROUND 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH/JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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