864  
FXUS63 KMPX 151124  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
624 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS.  
 
- A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
 
- A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
 
GOES19 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT IS LEFT OUR WEAK STORMS  
IN SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS A COMPLEX OF STRONGER STORMS MOVES  
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE  
LINGERING SHOWERS HAS OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO  
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL MORE  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PSEUDO-  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE THE  
LOCUS OF WHAT WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE  
WEEKEND, WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY GOING TO BE A KEY FOCAL  
POINT OF THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL  
END UP.  
 
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF A PLUME OF LOWER  
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY  
LATER TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF HOUR OR  
TWO OF HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE  
DURATION FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE SHORT ENOUGH SUCH THAT AN ADVISORY MAY  
NOT BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS END  
UP KNOCKING DOWN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR A LARGE  
PORTION OF THE MPX CWA, WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 70S  
WITHIN THE PRIMARY WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS STILL NOT A CLEAR CONSENSUS WITHIN THE SUITE OF  
GUIDANCE TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER FOR NOW  
IT LOOKS TO FAVOR NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES WHICH WOULD PLACE  
MOST OF THE CWA WITHIN THE WAA ZONE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE AREA NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS  
SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED, HOWEVER A LOWER-MID LEVEL CAP AS  
WELL AS HIGH PWATS ARE MAKING THIS EVENT SEEM MORE LIKE A FLOODING  
THREAT THAN A LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CFSR CLIMATOLOGY  
FROM THE ECMWF SHOWS A PLUME OF 99TH OR HIGHER PERCENTILE PWATS OVER  
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BOTH THE CFSR ECMWF AND NAEFS SHOWING  
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THERE IS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BEING PRESENT WITH THE HIGHEST  
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE IN TERMS OF THE PERCENTILES BEING SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER A FEW DAYS OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL  
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKE PLACE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER  
DETAILS INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY AREA  
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WE SEE MORE CAMS COME INTO PLAY THAT WILL  
CAPTURE THE FULL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  
 
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN  
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, PUSHING THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EAST AS  
IT DOES. FLOW ALOFT WILL TILT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE  
END OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE TO NOT ONLY  
DRYING OUT BUT ALSO SEEING TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO THE 70S TO  
LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
 
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY MAINLY REGARDING CONVECTIVE  
MODE AND TIMING LATER ON THE PERIOD, WITH MORE DATA COMING IN  
TODAY HOPEFULLY LETTING US BETTER TIME THE WINDOWS WITHIN THE  
CURRENT PROB30S. THE STORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE YET TO WEAKEN  
AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE THE NEED FOR AN  
AMD FOR MAINLY AXN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN/SCT MID TO HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE WE SLOWLY  
LOWER WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A BELOW  
15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM 18-00Z, HOWEVER  
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF.  
 
KMSP...THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA IS STILL TOO BROAD BUT THERE ARE  
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING MODE, THUS TIMING WILL  
REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. HOPEFULLY THE 12Z RUN WITH UPPER AIR  
DATA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/TSRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.  
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO N 5-10KTS.  
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TDH  
AVIATION...TDH  
 
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