062
FXUS63 KMPX 160002
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS & SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) ACROSS E MN
& W WI THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- A TREND TO A DRIER, COOLER PATTERN SETTING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LATEST GOES 19 IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A PLUME OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL JET ACROSS SD/NE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BROAD ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET &
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC DID EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FURTHER WEST INTO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH OUR FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 12+ HOURS IS TIED TO MULTIPLE REMNANT MCVS FROM LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION. WE CAN HIGHLIGHT ONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN & ONE
IN NORTHERN IOWA. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED THE WARM UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL & WESTERN MN TODAY, BUT WE'RE BEGINNING
TO SEE THE CLOUD COVER SCATTER OUT. DEW POINTS HAVE FOLLOWED THE
FORECAST AND HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S - EVERYBODY
LOVES A 70-SOMETHING DEW POINT, RIGHT? THE SOUTHERN MCV IS
IMMEDIATELY FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS MARKED BY THE
ONGOING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS
MOMENT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO CROSS INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS THAT COMPLEX TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW. THE SECOND MCV IS GOING TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
APPEARS TO REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS W/C MN. THE LAST SEVERAL FRAMES OF
VISIBLE HIGHLIGHT SOME ROLL CLOUDS ACROSS W MN THAT MAY SERVE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF WE'RE ABLE TO THREAD THE NEEDLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO HIGHLIGHT AMPLE SHEAR WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET &
SHORTWAVE ALOFT & THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST WE SEE
ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM, GROW QUICKLY UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. THIS
IS WHY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
CONCERN TODAY.
GIVEN THAT THE STARTING POINT IS ALREADY MUDDIED, THE UNCERTAINTY
ONLY GROWS. METEOROLOGICALLY, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT'LL TRACK OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MN AND BY SATURDAY MORNING INTO W WI. THESE STORMS
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN GOING
FORWARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2.0" THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO FORM SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN RATES & HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING
OVER W WI SATURDAY AM. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN
FOR A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SLOWER MOVING, AND POSSIBLY TRAINING
CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE ATTENTION AS LOCATIONS IMPACTED
BY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A SPC MARGINAL RISK REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND/HAIL THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY IS
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED BY THE WPC. THE
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN & LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS & SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS OR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
REMAIN IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE HEAT WILL STAY TIED TO I-90 SATURDAY & COULD PROMPT A
HEAT HEADLINE BY FUTURE SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS THE
BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN & POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE SFC LOW
TIED TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2"+ IN
ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THERE
IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 3" WITH MORE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5" LIKELY FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE RAIN MULTIPLE
TIMES. LOOKING PAST MONDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT WE'LL A DRIER &
COOLER (OR LESS HUMID) PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT, WE'LL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLE IN EARLY TO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER, COOLER AIR THAT IS MORE FAVOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI, SO HAVE
TEMPOS AT RNH/EAU FOR NEAR-TERM IMPACTS FROM THUNDER. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS TRENDING DOWN WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN. STORMS GRADUALLY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH AN EXPECTED DRY/VFR PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS
HEADING INTO THE NIGHT.
THE DRY THEME WILL NOT LAST, AS HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SET TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HAVE CONVERTED PROB30S TO TEMPOS AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
RESPECTIVE 3-HOUR WINDOWS BETWEEN 10-15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST AIMS TO DRY OUT
FOLLOWING THE MORNING STORMS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. ONE OTHER NOTE,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH A BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
FOLLOWING THE MORNING STORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL.
KMSP...EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEPARTING TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE FORECAST
WILL TREND DRY HEADING INTO THE NIGHT, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
COLLABORATED WITH ZMP CWSU TO CONVERT THE PROB30 TO A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-15Z. TIMING MAY STILL SHIFT, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS WINDOW.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/TSRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO N 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...STRUS
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