571
FXUS63 KMPX 160518
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS & SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) ACROSS E MN
& W WI THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- A TREND TO A DRIER, COOLER PATTERN SETTING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LATEST GOES 19 IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A PLUME OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL JET ACROSS SD/NE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BROAD ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET &
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC DID EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FURTHER WEST INTO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH OUR FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 12+ HOURS IS TIED TO MULTIPLE REMNANT MCVS FROM LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION. WE CAN HIGHLIGHT ONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN & ONE
IN NORTHERN IOWA. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED THE WARM UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL & WESTERN MN TODAY, BUT WE'RE BEGINNING
TO SEE THE CLOUD COVER SCATTER OUT. DEW POINTS HAVE FOLLOWED THE
FORECAST AND HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S - EVERYBODY
LOVES A 70-SOMETHING DEW POINT, RIGHT? THE SOUTHERN MCV IS
IMMEDIATELY FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS MARKED BY THE
ONGOING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS
MOMENT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO CROSS INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS THAT COMPLEX TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW. THE SECOND MCV IS GOING TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
APPEARS TO REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS W/C MN. THE LAST SEVERAL FRAMES OF
VISIBLE HIGHLIGHT SOME ROLL CLOUDS ACROSS W MN THAT MAY SERVE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF WE'RE ABLE TO THREAD THE NEEDLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO HIGHLIGHT AMPLE SHEAR WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET &
SHORTWAVE ALOFT & THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST WE SEE
ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM, GROW QUICKLY UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. THIS
IS WHY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
CONCERN TODAY.
GIVEN THAT THE STARTING POINT IS ALREADY MUDDIED, THE UNCERTAINTY
ONLY GROWS. METEOROLOGICALLY, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT'LL TRACK OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MN AND BY SATURDAY MORNING INTO W WI. THESE STORMS
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN GOING
FORWARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2.0" THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO FORM SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN RATES & HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING
OVER W WI SATURDAY AM. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN
FOR A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SLOWER MOVING, AND POSSIBLY TRAINING
CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE ATTENTION AS LOCATIONS IMPACTED
BY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A SPC MARGINAL RISK REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND/HAIL THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY IS
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED BY THE WPC. THE
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN & LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS & SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS OR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
REMAIN IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE HEAT WILL STAY TIED TO I-90 SATURDAY & COULD PROMPT A
HEAT HEADLINE BY FUTURE SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS THE
BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN & POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE SFC LOW
TIED TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2"+ IN
ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THERE
IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 3" WITH MORE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5" LIKELY FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE RAIN MULTIPLE
TIMES. LOOKING PAST MONDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT WE'LL A DRIER &
COOLER (OR LESS HUMID) PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT, WE'LL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLE IN EARLY TO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER, COOLER AIR THAT IS MORE FAVOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE CRUX OF THE TAF IS STILL THE TIMING OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A START TIME OF ROUGHLY
09-10Z IN WESTERN MN AND 12-13Z IN EASTERN MN, GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF STORM MOVEMENT. RIGHT NOW,
THE OVERALL TAF TREND WILL CONTINUE AS VFR WITH -TSRA RESULTING
IN DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON RAIN RATES FOR THE BRIEF
WINDOW THAT -TSRA IS PRESENT, RETURNING QUICKLY TO VFR
AFTERWARDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE ON A 240-300 DIRECTION AS
STORMS APPROACH WITH VARYING DIRECTION AS STORMS PASS THROUGH,
WITH STORM GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY RISK ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING.
AFTER -TSRA PUSHES THROUGH EACH SITE, BKN050-100 CIGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LATE PERIOD ALSO
CONTAINING ANOTHER -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR END OF PERIOD FOR NOW.
KMSP...CAM TIMING FOR TSRA WOULD BE ARRIVAL 12-13Z AND DEPARTURE
13-14Z WITH A PROGRESSIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH. WE MAY NEED A
BRIEF AWW DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO, WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE WARY FOR
MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/TSRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO N 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH
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