212
FXUS63 KMPX 160747
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF STRONG STORMS ENTERS THE AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. INTENSE RAIN
RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, FAVORING SOUTHERN MN. TRAINING STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
- QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A RATHER CHAOTIC SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WHICH IS LEADING
TO HIGHER THAN DESIRED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THINGS WILL GO OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS A POWERFUL MCS OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 70-
75MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN SODAK SINCE AROUND 10PM
LAST NIGHT, WITH MORNING CAM GUIDANCE FAVORING THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MPX CWA FROM ROUGHLY 09-10Z STARTING IN WESTERN MN TO 13-
14Z EXITING WESTERN WI. THE CHAOS COMES INTO PLAY AS THERE IS A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE LINE
THAT IS NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE'S ARRIVAL, AS
WELL AS A LINE OF WEAKER SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS
OF AROUND 730-830Z. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING IN
EXCESS OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR, WHICH IS
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THINGS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AMIDST
EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER A FEW GAUGES HAVE REPORTED
UPWARDS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON THE ORDER OF 15-30 MINUTES, WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW OUR
HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL
A CONSIDERATION THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW.
THE COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEPART THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY, WITH RECOVERY
EXPECTED QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUES AND WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED A LATER
START TIME THAT WOULD PLACE IT MORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALONGSIDE WHATEVER RAIN FALLS THIS MORNING, THIS WILL PRIMARILY POSE
A FLOOD RISK ESPECIALLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREA WILL SEE YET
ANOTHER COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH, WITH SOUTHERN MN CURRENTLY SEEING THE
GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING AND
FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NO LONGER IN PLAY, SO THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A
WEAKER OVERALL STRONG WIND OR HAIL THREAT COMPARED TO THE START OF
THE PERIOD.
FURTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ALONGSIDE THE MID LEVEL
WAVE BY THE 2ND HALF OF MONDAY, RESULTING IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
AND COOLING DOWN AFTERWARDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TILT FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
ENTER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH LESS OF A DAILY STORM CHANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE CRUX OF THE TAF IS STILL THE TIMING OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A START TIME OF ROUGHLY
09-10Z IN WESTERN MN AND 12-13Z IN EASTERN MN, GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF STORM MOVEMENT. RIGHT NOW,
THE OVERALL TAF TREND WILL CONTINUE AS VFR WITH -TSRA RESULTING
IN DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON RAIN RATES FOR THE BRIEF
WINDOW THAT -TSRA IS PRESENT, RETURNING QUICKLY TO VFR
AFTERWARDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE ON A 240-300 DIRECTION AS
STORMS APPROACH WITH VARYING DIRECTION AS STORMS PASS THROUGH,
WITH STORM GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY RISK ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING.
AFTER -TSRA PUSHES THROUGH EACH SITE, BKN050-100 CIGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LATE PERIOD ALSO
CONTAINING ANOTHER -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR END OF PERIOD FOR NOW.
KMSP...CAM TIMING FOR TSRA WOULD BE ARRIVAL 12-13Z AND DEPARTURE
13-14Z WITH A PROGRESSIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH. WE MAY NEED A
BRIEF AWW DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO, WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE WARY FOR
MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/TSRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO N 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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