169  
FXUS63 KMPX 161114  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
614 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LINE OF STRONG STORMS ENTERS THE AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THIS  
MORNING, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. INTENSE RAIN  
RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING, FAVORING SOUTHERN MN. TRAINING STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING  
CONCERNS.  
 
- QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
 
A RATHER CHAOTIC SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WHICH IS LEADING  
TO HIGHER THAN DESIRED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THINGS WILL GO OVER  
THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS A POWERFUL MCS OVER EASTERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 70-  
75MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN SODAK SINCE AROUND 10PM  
LAST NIGHT, WITH MORNING CAM GUIDANCE FAVORING THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE MPX CWA FROM ROUGHLY 09-10Z STARTING IN WESTERN MN TO 13-  
14Z EXITING WESTERN WI. THE CHAOS COMES INTO PLAY AS THERE IS A  
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE LINE  
THAT IS NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE WHICH COULD  
THROW A WRENCH INTO THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE'S ARRIVAL, AS  
WELL AS A LINE OF WEAKER SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS  
OF AROUND 730-830Z. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING IN  
EXCESS OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR, WHICH IS  
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THINGS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE  
AREA. ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, INTENSE  
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AMIDST  
EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA CURRENTLY  
EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY  
PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER A FEW GAUGES HAVE REPORTED  
UPWARDS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES  
THROUGH ON THE ORDER OF 15-30 MINUTES, WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN  
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW OUR  
HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL  
A CONSIDERATION THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE  
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF  
THE LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW.  
 
THE COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEPART THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY, WITH RECOVERY  
EXPECTED QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT CONTINUES AND WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF  
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED A LATER  
START TIME THAT WOULD PLACE IT MORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
ALONGSIDE WHATEVER RAIN FALLS THIS MORNING, THIS WILL PRIMARILY POSE  
A FLOOD RISK ESPECIALLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREA WILL SEE YET  
ANOTHER COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH, WITH SOUTHERN MN CURRENTLY SEEING THE  
GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.  
MUCAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING AND  
FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND  
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NO LONGER IN PLAY, SO THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A  
WEAKER OVERALL STRONG WIND OR HAIL THREAT COMPARED TO THE START OF  
THE PERIOD.  
 
FURTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE  
SURFACE LOW FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ALONGSIDE THE MID LEVEL  
WAVE BY THE 2ND HALF OF MONDAY, RESULTING IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT  
AND COOLING DOWN AFTERWARDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TILT FLOW  
NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE  
ENTER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH  
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S  
WITH LESS OF A DAILY STORM CHANCE.
 
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
 
SCATTERED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LINE MOVING EAST-  
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN AT THE START OF THE TAF WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS, BECOMING VFR AFTER -TSRA ENDS.  
THE LINE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH WEAKER WINDS  
AND LESS LIGHTNING, HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE TEMPO FOR  
EACH SITE COVER THE PEAK GUST POTENTIAL. VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN  
BECOME MVFR/IFR LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH MORE -SHRA/-TSRA  
POSSIBLE.  
 
KMSP...THE FIRST 2 TO 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH TSRA POSSIBLE  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE  
LOOKING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. FURTHER SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE PERIOD ALONGSIDE MVFR/IFR.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR/TSRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.  
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO N 5-10KTS.  
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TDH  
AVIATION...TDH  
 
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