553
FXUS63 KMPX 161738
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF STRONG STORMS ENTERS THE AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. INTENSE RAIN
RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, FAVORING SOUTHERN MN. TRAINING STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
- QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A RATHER CHAOTIC SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WHICH IS LEADING
TO HIGHER THAN DESIRED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THINGS WILL GO OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS A POWERFUL MCS OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 70-
75MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN SODAK SINCE AROUND 10PM
LAST NIGHT, WITH MORNING CAM GUIDANCE FAVORING THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MPX CWA FROM ROUGHLY 09-10Z STARTING IN WESTERN MN TO 13-
14Z EXITING WESTERN WI. THE CHAOS COMES INTO PLAY AS THERE IS A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE LINE
THAT IS NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE'S ARRIVAL, AS
WELL AS A LINE OF WEAKER SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS
OF AROUND 730-830Z. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING IN
EXCESS OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR, WHICH IS
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THINGS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AMIDST
EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER A FEW GAUGES HAVE REPORTED
UPWARDS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON THE ORDER OF 15-30 MINUTES, WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW OUR
HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL
A CONSIDERATION THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW.
THE COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEPART THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY, WITH RECOVERY
EXPECTED QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUES AND WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED A LATER
START TIME THAT WOULD PLACE IT MORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALONGSIDE WHATEVER RAIN FALLS THIS MORNING, THIS WILL PRIMARILY POSE
A FLOOD RISK ESPECIALLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREA WILL SEE YET
ANOTHER COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH, WITH SOUTHERN MN CURRENTLY SEEING THE
GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING AND
FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NO LONGER IN PLAY, SO THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A
WEAKER OVERALL STRONG WIND OR HAIL THREAT COMPARED TO THE START OF
THE PERIOD.
FURTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ALONGSIDE THE MID LEVEL
WAVE BY THE 2ND HALF OF MONDAY, RESULTING IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
AND COOLING DOWN AFTERWARDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TILT FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
ENTER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH LESS OF A DAILY STORM CHANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MORNING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST.
THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN A WIND SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT. TIMING OF THE SHIFT IS TAF SITE DEPENDENT.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY LINGERING AREAS OF LOW CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN AN OVERALL DRY DIRECTION AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
LEANED HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR/HREF TIMING FOR PROB30 WINDOWS. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST AT MKT &
RWF, HOWEVER VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL DATA KEPT THE NEED FOR TS
MENTION AT AXN, MSP, & STC. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN
PROB30S AT RNH/EAU. PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY
ACCOMPANIES RAIN/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
KMSP...WINDS TURN MORE ENE AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN SUCH OCCURRENCE.
LATEST TRENDS KEEP TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING'S ROUND OF CONVECTION
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIABILITY IN THE DATA TO KEEP THE PROB30 FROM 8-14Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND S TO NW 5-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...STRUS
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