165  
FXUS63 KMPX 180743  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
243 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR  
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS MORNING.  
THE TWIN CITIES METRO COULD BE IMPACT DURING THE MORNING  
COMMUTE.  
 
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY, CONDITIONS LOOK TO  
DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
RADAR IS QUITE ACTIVE THIS MORNING WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRESENT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SEVERE STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE TREND. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN  
THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS  
MORNING IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR TWO, WITH THE BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS GENERALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE FLOOD  
WATCH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A COMBINATION OF THE  
FORCING FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ALONGSIDE INSTABILITY FOR  
STORMS WILL KEEP THE AREA ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY. THE  
HARDEST HIT AREAS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FURTHER RAINFALL SUCH THAT FLOODING AND FLASH  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 3-  
6 HOURS AND WILL BE SOMETHING WE HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE  
COMING HOURS. PWATS CONTINUE TO EXCEED 1.8-2 INCHES AS EFFICIENT  
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT PER SPC MESOANALYSIS DUE TO THE  
LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO  
MIGRATE NORTHWARDS WHICH PLACES MOST OF THE MPX CWA WITHIN THE LOW  
LEVEL JET'S INFLUENCE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL  
PRODUCTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS. WE LIKELY WILL  
HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD WE SEE STORMS  
MOVING INTO AREAS ALREADY HIT DUE TO HOW SATURATED THE GROUND  
ALREADY IS, FAVORING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN TO WESTERN WI. THANKFULLY  
WE HAVE HAD JUST ENOUGH OF A LULL FROM ROUGHLY 11PM TO 3AM TO  
RECOVER ENOUGH SUCH THAT WATER HAS RECEDED FROM MOST OF THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING AREAS WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING WASECA COUNTY  
WHICH SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS ALREADY YESTERDAY MORNING IN ADDITION TO  
THE AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE  
REGION THIS MORNING, ARRIVING IN WESTERN MN SHORTLY AFTER THIS  
DISCUSSION GOES OUT AND REACHING THE TWIN CITIES METRO BY THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS AND WESTERN WI BY THE LATE MORNING.  
 
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH  
THIS MORNING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT  
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING BACK TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE  
AUGUST AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
BENEATH AN INCOMING RIDGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT  
LEAST FRIDAY AT WHICH POINT A HUDSON BAY LOW BEING PICKED UP WITHIN  
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE  
REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE MINOR CHANCES FOR RAIN, WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE RETURNING AFTERWARDS. AFTER THE ACTIVE LAST  
FEW WEEKS AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS GO, IT WILL BE NICE TO HAVE A  
BREAK AS WE BEGIN TO DEAL WITH SWOLLEN RIVERS AND RIVER FLOODING DUE  
TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE LONGER RANGE GEFS/EPS  
BOTH SHOW RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK,  
WITH SPORADIC PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE 28TH OR 29TH WITH A LACK OF A  
DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONGER TIME RANGES LEADING TO  
UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
RA/TSRA CONTINUES AT INITIALIZATION, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN MN  
INTO WESTERN WI, WHILE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DRIFT  
ACROSS MN THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE TAKEN A HRRR LOOK TO THINGS  
WHICH SHIFTS THE ONGOING LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN EAST INTO WI WHILE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP IN SW MN OVERNIGHT AND  
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS  
NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE. PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE  
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, WITH IFR POSSIBLE FROM TIME  
TO TIME. HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE SHORT-DURATION  
IFR WITH THE BULK OF THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. AS THE  
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE MORNING DIMINISHES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A  
COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH LIFTING CEILINGS AND NO VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING (ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS  
POSSIBLE GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING).  
 
KMSP...ONLY A FEW WEAK RAIN SHOWERS AT THE START OF THIS TAF  
PERIOD BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LOOKING LIKELY CLOSE  
TO AND SHORTLY AFTER THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH. HAVE HELD CEILINGS  
ABOVE 1700FT AT THIS POINT BUT SUB-1700FT CEILINGS ARE CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST LATE  
MONDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH WINDS 10-15KT SHIFTING FROM S TO W MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN NW  
GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BY  
THEN.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.  
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.  
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-  
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-  
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-  
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.  
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-  
CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-  
KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-  
SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.  
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-  
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TDH  
AVIATION...JPC  
 
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