768
FXUS63 KMPX 182256
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WELCOMED RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.
- CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
IMPROVEMENTS ARE IN SIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN HAS DEPARTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE'LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI IN THE
SHORT TERM, THOUGH THOSE CHANCES WILL CEASE FOLLOWING THE ONGOING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT'LL TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO COMPLETELY LOSE
THE CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER EACH PASSING HOUR REVEALS A FEW MORE PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK. OPTED TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI GIVEN THE LIMITED
SUNSHINE TO THIS POINT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH/WEST MN TO THE UPPER 70S EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH
OF I-94. A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT IS AHEAD, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DO SKIES CLEAR,
AS THE THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED THE TREND FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT AND
INCLUDED AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, &
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF A ~590S DM RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL PUSH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL WORK TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A POP-UP
SHOWER OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A POP. DESPITE UPPER HEIGHT RISES, THE FORECAST
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AIM TO KEEP LOCAL TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LATEST NBM FEATURES DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY STILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S (TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE MN RIVER)
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE SWINGS A JETSTREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS OVER MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC INFLUENCED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, THOUGH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITION FOOTPRINT IS. FOR NOW, LIKE THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH IS
REFLECTED BY 40-60% CHANCES IN THE LAST NBM. THOSE POPS DECREASE TO
20-30% THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. THIS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SIGNALS THE ONLY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS (WE'LL TAKE THAT!). MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN EXPANSIVE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ~1020S MB HIGH PRESSURE WE CAN EXPECT SUNNY SKIES,
COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS
OF HUMIDITY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ONE OF THE NICEST WEATHER
WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR JUST IN TIME FOR THE MINNESOTA STATE FAIR!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED OUT OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD
BACK IN THIS EVENING, WITH EVEN FURTHER REDUCTION EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR VISIBILITY & CEILINGS LOOK LIKE A CERTAINTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE BUT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT LOOK
MORE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH LIFR VISIBILITY AS LOW AS
1/4SM ALSO POSSIBLE AT MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR EXPECTED BY 8-10 AM. CEILINGS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
NOON, BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT & VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD BACK LATE TONIGHT & LOWER
FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT LOOK LIKELY
BY 3-4 AM & CONTINUING UNTIL 8-9 AM. THE CEILINGS MAY PREVENT
ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING, BUT VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN TO
AT LEAST 1-2 MILES APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 8-9 AM WITH MVFR CEILINGS FINALLY
SCATTERING OUT AROUND NOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND E 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...ETA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page