584
FXUS63 KMPX 190356
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WELCOMED RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.
- CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
IMPROVEMENTS ARE IN SIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE LAST ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS DEPARTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE'LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI IN THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH THOSE CHANCES WILL CEASE
FOLLOWING THE ONGOING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT'LL TAKE SOME
MORE TIME TO COMPLETELY LOSE THE CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER EACH
PASSING HOUR REVEALS A FEW MORE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
CLOUD DECK. OPTED TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI GIVEN THE LIMITED SUNSHINE TO THIS
POINT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
SOUTH/WEST MN TO THE UPPER 70S EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-94.
A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT IS AHEAD, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DO SKIES CLEAR, AS
THE THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED THE TREND FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT
AND INCLUDED AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT, TUESDAY
NIGHT, & WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF A ~590S DM RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL PUSH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WORK TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A POP. DESPITE
UPPER HEIGHT RISES, THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL AIM TO KEEP LOCAL TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. LATEST NBM
FEATURES DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY STILL FEEL A BIT HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S (TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE MN RIVER) THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE SWINGS A JETSTREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE ACROSS OVER MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC
INFLUENCED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THOUGH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE EVENTUAL
PRECIPITION FOOTPRINT IS. FOR NOW, LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH IS REFLECTED BY 40-60%
CHANCES IN THE LAST NBM. THOSE POPS DECREASE TO 20-30% THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SIGNALS THE ONLY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS (WE'LL TAKE THAT!). MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN EXPANSIVE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ~1020S MB HIGH PRESSURE WE CAN EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES, COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ONE OF THE NICEST
WEATHER WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR JUST IN TIME FOR THE MINNESOTA
STATE FAIR!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
ONLY SITE TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS IS AXN WITH THE
DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NW MN. HAVE MAINTAINED A
COUPLE HOURS OF PRECIPITATION AT INITIALIZATION BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS AREA OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER GOOD FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE NIGHTLY INVERSION ALONG WITH WINDS GOING CALM. HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO DROPS TO IFR BUT CONDITIONS
WORSE THAN IFR ALONG WITH A LONGER DURATION ARE EACH VERY
POSSIBLE NEAR AND THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
KMSP...MSP WILL NOT BE IMMUNE FROM THE GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AROUND 09Z AND A GOOD
SHOT AT SOME DURATION OF IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND E 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JPC
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