770  
FXUS63 KMPX 191119  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
619 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. A FEW WEAK  
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, THERE IS RELATIVELY QUIET  
WEATHER ACROSS THE MPX CWA WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING AREAS OF  
DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO ELEVATED DEW POINTS FROM ALL  
THE RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FOG IS  
THICKEST IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN WI  
RESULTING IN PATCHIER FOG AND THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WERE A FEW  
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER VISIBILITY. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACTIVE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 9AM, HOWEVER IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED  
AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IS ONLY A FEW  
DEGREES AT MOST AND THE MORNING INVERSION WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL  
WE GET A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE  
RAP/HRRR SHOW THE FOG POTENTIAL LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 9AM  
BEFORE RISING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG, AS DEW  
POINTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW  
OVER THE LINGERING HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE  
REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RIDE THE EDGE OF AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE  
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AFTER TODAY ARRIVING ON FRIDAY VIA A COLD FRONT STRETCHING  
SOUTHWARDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS  
BEING FORCED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL OCCLUSION AND LONGWAVE TROUGH  
WHICH SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE DUE  
TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND LIMITED ACCESS TO A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE  
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LIMITED POTENTIAL  
BEYOND THIS. THE MAIN THING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY THROW A WRENCH  
INTO THINGS IS THE RATE OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION DUE TO THE MATURITY OF  
VEGETATION AT THIS POINT IN AUGUST, HOWEVER THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT  
HEAT SHOULD ALSO QUELL THIS RISK SOMEWHAT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
SHIFTS EASTWARDS, BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STACK ACROSS THE AREA AT  
ALL LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE, RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES AND  
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE THAT A  
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA STRUGGLES TO SEE A HIGH OF 70 ON  
SUNDAY, WHICH SEEMS LIKE A RARITY FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE STATE  
FAIR (IT HASN'T HAPPENED IN AUGUST FOR THE STATE FAIR SINCE  
2018).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR  
WITH FOG, IMPROVING AFTER 14Z ACROSS THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CIGS  
WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS VFR BY 18Z WITH FEW250 TO SKC ACROSS THE  
AREA AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z,  
HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER SUCH THAT THE SPREAD OF DENSE  
FOG SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.  
 
KMSP...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG MVFR CIGS HANG AROUND,  
WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AS OF 11Z HAVING BEEN BREAKING UP  
THE LOW LEVEL MVFR AT OTHER LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS, BY 18Z WE  
SHOULD BE VFR WITH NO CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR/BR EARLY. WIND S 5KTS.  
FRI...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.  
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BLUE  
EARTH-BROWN-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-  
ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-  
MORRISON-NICOLLET-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-  
STEELE-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.  
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-  
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TDH  
AVIATION...TDH  
 
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