137
FXUS63 KMPX 191718
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 20%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART, ASIDE FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TODAY...MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION, AND SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY, SO DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST DIRECTION, AND LIGHT SPEEDS LESS THAN
25 KTS UP THROUGH 200 MB. FOR THAT REASON, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY LOW, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ONLY HAS
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET, AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER, WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, AND SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL COME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA, BUT THESE DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND, OR LARGE HAIL.
ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN A COOL, CANADIAN
AIRMASS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE COOL AIR ALOFT TOGETHER WITH LATE AUGUST SUN SETS THE STAGE
FOR AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LASTLY, IT WILL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS HAS MOSTLY SCATTERED OUT BY ISSUANCE. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW VFR. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF MVFR/IFR FOG
(FG/BR) & POSSIBLY IFR/MVFR CIGS. I BEGAN TO ADVERTISE THE LOWER
VSBY CATS & USED FEW CATEGORY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS,
TOO. TIMING FOR THIS ROUND OF FOG APPEARS AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT & VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY TURNING CALM.
WE'LL SCATTER OUT BY LATE WED MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
KMSP...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO IF WE SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS OR
VSBY AT MSP TERMINAL. INTRODUCED FEW015 TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL
AND HOPE FUTURE TAFS WILL REFINE FURTHER WHEN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
CHANCE FOR ONE TO IMPACT MSP IS LOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR/BR EARLY. WIND S 5KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH
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