941
FXUS63 KMPX 192354
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 20%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART, ASIDE FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TODAY...MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION, AND SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY, SO DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST DIRECTION, AND LIGHT SPEEDS LESS THAN
25 KTS UP THROUGH 200 MB. FOR THAT REASON, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY LOW, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ONLY HAS
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET, AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER, WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, AND SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL COME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA, BUT THESE DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND, OR LARGE HAIL.
ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN A COOL, CANADIAN
AIRMASS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE COOL AIR ALOFT TOGETHER WITH LATE AUGUST SUN SETS THE STAGE
FOR AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LASTLY, IT WILL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
LIKELY MVFR/IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
SITES. ISO SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM OUR
WISCONSIN SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST, FEW TO SCT CIGS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS,
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOSTLY AFTER 8/9Z TONIGHT. AXN
AND RWF LOOK TO BE IMPACTED THE LEAST WITH ONLY 3 TO 4SM LIKELY
WHEREAS FARTHER EAST FOR ALL OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT 1SM IF NOT
LOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS AND
POTENTIALLY AMEND FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG. BY 14Z, FOG SHOULD MIX OUT
AND GIVE WAY TO IMPROVED CIGS/VSBY. LOW DIURNAL SCT TO BKN CIGS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN SITES . LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5KTS TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AROUND 8/9Z AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW, VSBY DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL UNDER 6SM. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR/BR EARLY. WIND S 5KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB/TDH
AVIATION...RMD
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