959  
FXUS63 KMPX 201914  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
214 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG  
A COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
- MUCH COOLER, MORE PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON LOCALLY GIVEN A  
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER  
PEAK HEATING, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT IN ADDITION TO  
LIGHT WINDS. THE SIGNAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE  
THAN LAST NIGHT, WHICH MEANS IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO LOW LYING  
AREAS THAT ARE THE FIRST TO FOG UP. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER  
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE  
SURFACE FRONT. ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION  
FIRING UPSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... WE'RE FAR ENOUGH OUT WHERE OUR  
HI-RES GUIDANCE ISN'T FULLY INTO RANGE BUT THE SET UP APPEARS  
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE C MN HIGHLIGHT FAVORABLE SHEAR & MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE. UNFORTUNATELY, OUR CURRENT  
THOUGHTS WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY & ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS WE'LL SEE ANY CONVECTION  
CONGEAL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY & WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MPX CWA  
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ANY SEVERE  
RISK WILL BE ALONG OUR C MN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT IMPACTS EARLIER  
IN THE TIME FRAME. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH  
UNCERTAINTY THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. REGARDLESS, A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK IS PRESENT BOTH DAY 2 &  
3.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC FRONT  
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG I-90 IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL RISK SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO COVER THE LIMITED  
SEVERE THREAT IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND  
COOLER AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE EARLY FALL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES/E NOAM. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE COOL, DRY  
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT IS A WELCOMED FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS  
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE PLEASANT AIRMASS AS A BROAD  
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND  
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S  
(!) AND NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS. WE'LL WARM SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH OVER THE E NOAM BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN &  
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE BECAUSE THE COOLER  
AIR WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY AND SURFACE  
MOISTURE. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AN APPETIZER FOR THE UPCOMING FALL  
SEASON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN  
FORECAST, WITH SOME LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS.  
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STILL GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY, BUT OVERNIGHT  
THEY WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED  
TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. KEPT  
FOG MENTIONS TO MAINLY TEMPO MVFR FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR WISCONSIN SITES.  
 
KMSP...A LOW LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK MAY HAVE CIGS BRIEFLY COME DOWN  
INTO MVFR TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO  
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY. WIND W 5-10KTS.  
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.  
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BPH  
AVIATION...DYE  
 
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