056
FXUS63 KMPX 031947
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG CLIPPER TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
HIGHS ARE MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS CAA FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. HIGHS HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 25-30 MPH BUT AXN DID GUST
TO 43 MPH NEAR NOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE GROWING POST-FRONTAL CUMULUS FIELD.
ACTIVITY WILL START OVER NORTHERN MN AND WI AND TRAVEL SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS EVENING, DISSIPATING ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FOR THE TWIN CITIES EASTWARD WHERE POPS
MAXIMIZE AROUND 30%. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY AS AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES COULD DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S
FOR RURAL AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. DID
CONSIDER A POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY FOR RUSK COUNTY BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR FROST IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW. STILL, IT MAY BE WISE TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN WEST-
CENTRAL WI.
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY, LEADING TO WAA ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. HIGHS HERE
ARE FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE AREAS NORTH WILL REMAIN
NEAR 60. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AS
GUIDANCE SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT EAST THRU MN AND INTO WI BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMPACT SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MN. A QUICK 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-94. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WESTERN TO SOUTHERN MN WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NEARING 20 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 30-35
KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT WINDS SHOULDN'T BE AS
STRONG COMPARED TO OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORING CWAS (FSD, ABR). RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING
BUT STILL BREEZY AND WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 60, FRIDAY WILL
FEEL LIKE OUR FIRST REAL FALL DAY.
THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY CALM AND PRECIP-FREE AS COOL,
DRY AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY'S
WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL THE
FROST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COULD
DIP TEMPERATURES EVEN FARTHER, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. A WARMING
TREND LOOKS LIKELY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOT TEMPERATURES
AREN'T LIKELY BUT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80) SEEMS CERTAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T SEEM AS
CERTAIN, THOUGH, WITHIN THE RIDGING REGIME. BUT, A STRAY EMBEDDED
IMPULSE COULD ALLOW US TO NOT BE COMPLETELY PRECIP FREE DURING NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH MVFR WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR STC/RNH. GUSTS OF 25-30KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
WINDS GO LIGHT AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT. FOR NOW, THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS DRY, BUT
SHRA CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KMSP...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, SHRA ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...DYE
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