800
FXUS63 KMPX 040607
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG CLIPPER TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
HIGHS ARE MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS CAA FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. HIGHS HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 25-30 MPH
BUT AXN DID GUST TO 43 MPH NEAR NOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE GROWING
POST-FRONTAL CUMULUS FIELD. ACTIVITY WILL START OVER NORTHERN MN
AND WI AND TRAVEL SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING, DISSIPATING ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FOR THE TWIN
CITIES EASTWARD WHERE POPS MAXIMIZE AROUND 30%. TONIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY AS AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
COULD DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR RURAL AREAS,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. DID CONSIDER A
POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY FOR RUSK COUNTY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR FROST IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW. STILL, IT MAY BE WISE TO COVER
ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN WEST-
CENTRAL WI.
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY, LEADING TO WAA ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. HIGHS
HERE ARE FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE AREAS NORTH
WILL REMAIN NEAR 60. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN AS GUIDANCE SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT EAST THRU MN AND
INTO WI BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MN. A
QUICK 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
OCCURRING NORTH OF I-94. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP
THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WESTERN
TO SOUTHERN MN WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES NEARING 20 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 30-35 KNOTS.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT WINDS SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG
COMPARED TO OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORING CWAS (FSD, ABR). RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD LARGELY END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING BUT STILL BREEZY AND WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING TO NEAR
60, FRIDAY WILL FEEL LIKE OUR FIRST REAL FALL DAY.
THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY CALM AND PRECIP-FREE AS
COOL, DRY AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY'S WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL THE FROST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COULD DIP TEMPERATURES EVEN FARTHER,
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOT TEMPERATURES AREN'T
LIKELY BUT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80) SEEMS CERTAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T SEEM AS
CERTAIN, THOUGH, WITHIN THE RIDGING REGIME. BUT, A STRAY
EMBEDDED IMPULSE COULD ALLOW US TO NOT BE COMPLETELY PRECIP FREE
DURING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE TAFS UNTIL A STRONG CLIPPER ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIKE MANY OF OUR SUMMER PRECIP EVENTS, THE
FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS QUITE STRONG, SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
TIMING IS QUITE HIGH THIS PERIOD, WITH NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE GOING TAFS. THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL SLIDE
JUST SOUTH OF I-94 IN SOUTHERN MN, THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
RAPID WIND SHIFTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. RIGHT BEHIND THE
LOW, THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW WHERE THE WINDS WILL
REALLY BE KICKING, ESPECIALLY DOWN AT RWF & MKT, WHERE GUSTS UP
AROUND 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO FOR RWF & MKT WE ADDED SOME
PROB30S FOR TS, THOUGH YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER AT ANY OF OUR MN TERMINALS. BEHIND THE LOW WILL COME
1K-2K FOOT STRATUS, THOUGH SOME IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI.
KMSP...CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES NEAR MSP AROUND 00Z. BEHIND THE LOW, LOOK
FOR A VERY RAPID SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 1Z AND
3Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
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