398
FXUS63 KMPX 041049
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG CLIPPER TO BRING A ROUND OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT.
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
TODAY... IT'S A CHILLY MORNING, WITH SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS (NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
NORTHERN MN/WI. AFTER SUNRISE, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE FAST-
APPROACHING CLIPPER WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR
OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE DYNAMICS STILL LOOK PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE, AND IT CERTAINLY WOULD'VE BEEN A
SOLID SNOW PRODUCER HAD IT BEEN JANUARY INSTEAD OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. MANY OF THE
CAMS SHOW THE LOW PIVOTING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES METRO,
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER QPF OVER A NARROW STRIP OF COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST WI. HREF LIGHTNING PROBS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER, THOUGH MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD FEEL MORE SHOWERY THAN
STORMY. UNLESS IF YOU ARE SOUTHERN MN WHERE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THE OTHER BIG COMPONENT OF THIS CLIPPER WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES UP TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH. WE CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN WIND RATHER THAN A MIXING
DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SET UP (GIVEN IT'LL BE MORE AT NIGHT).
BECAUSE OF THIS TIMING, THE BEST SIGNAL FOR STRONG WINDS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... OUR FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
MADE ITS WAY EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES, LEAVING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN YET ANOTHER STRONG CAA REGIME. THE 00Z
HREF PRODUCES MEAN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH, THOUGH THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
FREQUENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RECOVERS. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO TREND TEMPS DOWN, SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND ONLY A FEW SPOTS SNEAKING INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD
FEATURE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LOW OVER ONTARIO. THOUGH MUCH MORE SUBTLE THAN OUR
THURSDAY SYSTEM! FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP, ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER 5-7KFT TO SEE
MUCH NEAR THE SURFACE. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION, CLEARING SKIES AND SHIFTING
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK... THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS AN INCREASING
SIGNAL FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK (MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RIGHT NOW), BUT OTHERWISE ONLY
SPORADIC CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
ENTER A PRETTY TEMPERATE PERIOD, WITH PERSISTENT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE DO ALSO SEE MOISTURE BUILD BACK IN
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING US NEARLY
DOUBLING OUR PWATS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
QUIET START TO THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF A STRONG CLIPPER THAT
WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS
INCLUDE PERIODS OF VIS IMPACTS FROM -RA AND ISOLATED TSRA, CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 1K-2K FT FOR MANY SITES LATE
TONIGHT, AND A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WINDS/GUSTS IN THE
CLIPPER'S WAKE. GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 3 TO 5
HOUR WINDOW BEHIND THE LOW, PRIMARILY DOWN NEAR RWF AND MKT.
GUSTY NW WINDS THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
KMSP...CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES NEAR MSP AROUND 00Z. BEHIND THE LOW, LOOK
FOR A VERY RAPID SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 1Z AND
3Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
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