045
FXUS63 KMPX 050542
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG CLIPPER TO BRING A ROUND OF RAIN & ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT.
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL
MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES.
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TO THE NORTH,
INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 60. THE SURFACE LOW
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN ND AND WILL TRAVEL GENERALLY EAST
INTO WI BY TONIGHT. AN INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE THE LOW
TO DEEPEN, WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND
THE LOW AS WE GO INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN LOOKS CERTAIN
FOR CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND EASTERN MN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MN. IT IS HERE, WITHIN
THE GREATER SURFACE HEATING, WHERE A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS; THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL CREATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL DRIVE UP WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN, THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN TO SOUTHERN MN WHERE VALUES WILL REACH 30
TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FROM 4-9 PM FOR OUR WESTERN MN COUNTIES.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS MID-
LEVEL DRYING OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THOUGH, SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY EXIST OVER EASTERN MN AND WI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER, FRIDAY STILL WILL BE BREEZY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S, FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AS
WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. SATURDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ARE FORECAST FOR LOWS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALSO
CAUSE LOWS TO OVERACHIEVE MEANING ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW
(BY TUESDAY) AND THEN EVENTUAL RIDGING (BY THURSDAY). MOST GUIDANCE
FAVORS HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 70S BY MID-WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK ALSO LOOKS PRETTY DRY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE MONDAY NIGHT
WHERE A FINAL SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE DEPARTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENTLY HAVE 30-50% POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE, THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A GREATER
WARM-UP IS SUGGESTED BY SOME LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, MODELS
BEGIN TO REALLY DIVERGE BY THIS TIME PERIOD LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CERTAINTY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS DEPARTED TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, AS SEVERAL SITES ARE SET
TO OPEN THE 6Z TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. MVFR
STRATUS DECK (~15K FEET) ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A
CEILING AT AXN/STC/MSP/RNH/EAU THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ARRIVAL/DURATION OF MVFR CIGS AT RFW/MKT. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK, THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED (GUSTS 25-30 KTS) THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AMID THE NORTHWEST
FLOW LATER TODAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY
TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION. APPEARS
TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT SETUP SHOULD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP.
KMSP...MVFR STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILING (BETWEEN 15-20K FEET) IN PLACE BY 9Z, LIKELY PREVAILING
THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. CIG THEN SCATTERS OUT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...STRUS
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