060
FXUS63 KMPX 050755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RESEMBLES
CLASSIC MID-FALL BAROCLINICITY! OUR PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
NOW ON THE "BACK-SIDE" OF THE POTENT EARLY SEASON CLIPPER THAT
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL SCENARIO IS IMPROVED AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE KMPX RADAR. WE HAVE OBSERVED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, HOWEVER
SATELLITE DISPLAYS A STRATUS DECK DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS SHOULD WORK TO KEEP
MORNING LOWS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S. TODAY'S FORECAST
FEATURES OF A MIX OF MORNING STRATUS, AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OR SO) ALL
TIED TO THE ONGOING COLD ADVECTION REGIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE UPPER 50S, WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY, THOUGH THE SETUP SUPPORTS AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM ALONG WITH 50-75 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WILL
SUPPORT THE SHOWER CHANCES. WE'VE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO INCLUDE BROAD 15-20 POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS HIGHS
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN OUTLYING AREAS FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO FALL AS FAR AS
THE UPPER 30S! WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, THIS SETUP MAY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A FROST HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
NEXT WORK WEEK...BY MONDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
RESPONSE TO EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND LOCAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S AS A RESULT. WE'LL
ALSO LOOK TO SEE THE RETURN OF WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL SOME TIME TO
LOOK INTO THE FINER DETAILS, HOWEVER THE NBM'S 40-50% POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FITS THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL WELL AT THIS DISTANCE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE ADVERTISES THIS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SUSPECT
THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE AS NBM DISPLAYS A LINGERING POOL OF LOW TO
MID 60S TD'S (RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CAPE) ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT FOR NOW, THE 15-20
POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SUFFICE. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
A BIT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND
(AS REFLECTED IN THE CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS) IS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS DEPARTED TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, AS SEVERAL SITES ARE SET
TO OPEN THE 6Z TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. MVFR
STRATUS DECK (~15K FEET) ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A
CEILING AT AXN/STC/MSP/RNH/EAU THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ARRIVAL/DURATION OF MVFR CIGS AT RFW/MKT. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK, THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED (GUSTS 25-30 KTS) THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AMID THE NORTHWEST
FLOW LATER TODAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY
TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION. APPEARS
TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT SETUP SHOULD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP.
KMSP...MVFR STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILING (BETWEEN 15-20K FEET) IN PLACE BY 9Z, LIKELY PREVAILING
THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. CIG THEN SCATTERS OUT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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