048
FXUS63 KMPX 052307
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BUT CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE APEX OF A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ON THIS TROUGH'S WESTERN PERIPHERY,
A WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD. AS THE PARENT TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD, THE SD WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PINNED INTO
NORTHEASTERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
COULD STRAY INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY NEAR 40 DEGREES.
WITH THIS FALL LIKE WEATHER, THIS WEEKEND MIGHT BE A GOOD ONE TO
HEAD OUT TO THE APPLE ORCHARD OR ENJOY AN EVENING BY A BONFIRE!
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN AS ANOTHER WAVE TRIES TO FORCE ITSELF SOUTHWARD NE'RN WI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD NEWS IS NO WASH OUTS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WOULDN'T HURT TO PLAN FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
THE COLDER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE. SKIES
WILL BE ON THE CLEARER SIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FROST. NO WIDESPREAD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED BUT, IF YOU
HAVE SENSITIVE PLANTS IT MAY NOT HURT TO COVER THEM UP THAT
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WHICH RETURNS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S. ADDITIONALLY, WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL IN TOW OF THIS WAVE LATE TUESDAY. NBM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THIS AS PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE HOWEVER TD'S LINGERING IN
THE LOWER 60S WILL SUPPORT INCREASED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY
EXPANDING THE WINDOW OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING
ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRIEFLY QUIET THINGS DOWN BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP APPROACHES LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY, INTERMITTENT PASSING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER
ANY TAF SITE, BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES REACH A TERMINAL IT
WILL BE LARGELY INSIGNIFICANT AND NOT RESULT IN ANY CHANGE IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT,
WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW, WITH
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS OF THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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