082
FXUS63 KMPX 061733
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL AGAIN TODAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT IN CENTRAL MN.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE 70S AFTER THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY PM INTO
TUESDAY AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE HUDSON BAY LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR RECENT WEATHER
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE OUT TODAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE
CONSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WE HAVE SEEN. THIS
CIRCULATION DOES HAVE ONE FINAL MOVE THOUGH, AS A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TO OCCUR.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER, BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
IT WOULD BE A FEW BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT MOST. OVERALL
WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS FORCING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
SOME RAIN WILL BE IN EASTERN MINNESOTA TO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
BEHIND THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH
WILL BE DOMINANT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AN IDEAL SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER AS IT IS STILL
EARLY SEPTEMBER, GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES FALLING COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST
WITH JUST RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING IN SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MAYBE PARTS OF
RUSK COUNTY, WI FOR SOME MORE ISOLATED PATCHY FROST. FOR THIS
REASON HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT.
SO FAR SEPTEMBER IS THE TYPICAL START TO EARLY FALL. BY THAT I
MEAN A SEASON OF TRANSITION. PERIODS OF SUMMER LIKE WARMTH
FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR BACK AND FORTH. TODAY WILL BE THE START OF
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH LESS COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY, THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY WILL SEE EVEN LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN AND HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S. BY MONDAY WE
MOVE INTO WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN AND HIGHS JUMP BACK INTO THE
70S. WITH THIS WARMER AIR WILL COME INSTABILITY AND A RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY INCREASING
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. LOOKING TOWARDS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
THERE IS WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY PM INTO
TUESDAY AM. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS QPF, WHERE A WIDE RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A INCH PRESENT IN MEMBERSHIP.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND TIME RANGE THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING. AS WE GET CLOSER THIS RANGE SHOULD START TO CLUSTER
MORE.
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP US IN MILD, NEAR NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
START TO BREAK DOWN AND CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS TO HIGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
IN SUMMARY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH
A WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY (MAINLY E MN
TO W WI). A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS MONDAY PM TO TUESDAY AM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF DIP DUE
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
A SCT TO BKN DECK AROUND 060 TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10KTS. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. I LEANED ON PROB30S FOR TERMINALS
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF A RAIN SHOWER. ANY RAIN WILL BE
BRIEF, BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS WILL END. WINDS MAY TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
KMSP... A COMPLEX SET UP THAT JUSTIFIES THE USE OF VCSH &
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE WILL BE SCATTERED, BUT COULD HAVE ONE IMPACT KMSP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH
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