788
FXUS63 KMPX 061930
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT, COOL WITH A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL MN.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- NEXT WEEK, WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS, AS THE LACK OF SUN LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING. MEANWHILE, WHERE SKIES WERE
CLEAR, THE COOL AIR ALOFT TOGETHER WITH THE EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN LED
TO SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIRES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS IS A TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME, SO
THE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL, MEANING THE RISK FOR
SEVER WEATHER IS VERY LOW. THE MOST YOU'LL SEE IS PERHAPS SOME PEA
SIZE HAIL, BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
LATER THIS EVENING, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS WE LOOK PEAK HEATING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FROST IN
THE LOW-LYING COOL SPOTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD, AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN MINNESOTA, AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES SHOW GOOD DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AND ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5 TO 8
C/KM. WITH THAT IN PLACE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEATING END UP BEING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IS THE
LIMITING FACTOR, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN EVENTUAL
MARGINAL RISK FOR PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED HAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S MONDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF DIP DUE
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
A SCT TO BKN DECK AROUND 060 TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10KTS. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. I LEANED ON PROB30S FOR TERMINALS
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF A RAIN SHOWER. ANY RAIN WILL BE
BRIEF, BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS WILL END. WINDS MAY TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
KMSP... A COMPLEX SET UP THAT JUSTIFIES THE USE OF VCSH &
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE WILL BE SCATTERED, BUT COULD HAVE ONE IMPACT KMSP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH
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