895
FXUS63 KMPX 080759
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOL START TO THE MONTH, NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THIS WEEK.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW... AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO START THE MONTH WE HAVE NOW MOVED INTO A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE COOLING THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AS FROSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WE ARE
STILL RADIATING OUT AMD HAVE TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE 40S.
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE MORE FREQUENT FOG SPOTS (LIKE
VALLEY AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER) TO HAVE FOG THIS MORNING AS
THEY REACH SATURATION. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S TODAY, WITH A CHANCE TO BREAK 80 IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA. AS THIS IS LARGELY ADVECTING IN ALOFT AROUND 850 MB,
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EVEN
WHEN CONVECTION MIGHT FORM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AN ELEVATED
STORM IS MORE LIKELY THAN A SURFACE BASED STORM. PRECIPITATION
TIMING WILL FAVOR LATE AS THE LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE BEST SUPPORT
TONIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THIS
FAVORING TO OUR NORTH MORE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.
THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A TRAILING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETTER. THE
OVERALL POP IS LOWER HERE, BUT IF AN UPDRAFT CAN COME TOGETHER
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK. OVERALL
THIS MARGINAL RISK AREA IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT WILL NOT OCCUR, BUT IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE THE
CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR IT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION OR THE LLJ
DISSIPATES.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW. ALONG THIS WEAKER, MORE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE FAVORED BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH FAVOR HIGH LCLS. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHEN
IT COMES TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE INSTABILITY
COULD COME TOGETHER, BUT GETTING AN OVERLAP WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR IS WHAT MAY NOT OCCUR. OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ALL THE
PIECES LINE UP HAS KEPT US IN JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR DAY 2.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF
THE WEEK WE ARE STILL EXPECTED A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK A TROUGH
LOOKS LIKELY TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
WHAT HAS MORE SPREAD THOUGH IS OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN
CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE
UPPER LOW ON DIFFERENT PATHS. HOW THIS SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLVES WILL BE ONE THE KEYS IN HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER
IS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IF IT SETS UP MORE AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN THE WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THIS REASON NBM POPS IN THE LATE WEEK REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO THE SPREAD IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM OVERNIGHT AS WELL IN THE USUAL SPOTS IN VALLEYS AND NEAR
RIVERS. SO THIS MEANS EAU HAS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR AND MAYBE EVEN IFR. ADDED A TEMPO FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIME
OF BR/FG IN THE EAU TAF. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A FG OR BR ADDITION. AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM
TODAY, HIGHER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR. WE EXPECT TO SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTS TO INCREASE. WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY
NORTH OF OUR TERMINALS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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