480
FXUS63 KMPX 081835
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOL START TO THE MONTH, NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THIS WEEK.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW... AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO START THE MONTH WE HAVE NOW MOVED INTO A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE COOLING THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AS FROSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WE ARE
STILL RADIATING OUT AMD HAVE TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE 40S.
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE MORE FREQUENT FOG SPOTS (LIKE
VALLEY AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER) TO HAVE FOG THIS MORNING AS
THEY REACH SATURATION. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S TODAY, WITH A CHANCE TO BREAK 80 IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA. AS THIS IS LARGELY ADVECTING IN ALOFT AROUND 850 MB,
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EVEN
WHEN CONVECTION MIGHT FORM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AN ELEVATED
STORM IS MORE LIKELY THAN A SURFACE BASED STORM. PRECIPITATION
TIMING WILL FAVOR LATE AS THE LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE BEST SUPPORT
TONIGHT. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THIS
FAVORING TO OUR NORTH MORE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.
THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A TRAILING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETTER. THE
OVERALL POP IS LOWER HERE, BUT IF AN UPDRAFT CAN COME TOGETHER
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK. OVERALL
THIS MARGINAL RISK AREA IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT WILL NOT OCCUR, BUT IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE THE
CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR IT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION OR THE LLJ
DISSIPATES.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW. ALONG THIS WEAKER, MORE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE FAVORED BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH FAVOR HIGH LCLS. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHEN
IT COMES TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE INSTABILITY
COULD COME TOGETHER, BUT GETTING AN OVERLAP WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR IS WHAT MAY NOT OCCUR. OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ALL THE
PIECES LINE UP HAS KEPT US IN JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR DAY 2.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF
THE WEEK WE ARE STILL EXPECTED A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK A TROUGH
LOOKS LIKELY TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
WHAT HAS MORE SPREAD THOUGH IS OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN
CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE
UPPER LOW ON DIFFERENT PATHS. HOW THIS SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLVES WILL BE ONE THE KEYS IN HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER
IS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IF IT SETS UP MORE AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN THE WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THIS REASON NBM POPS IN THE LATE WEEK REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO THE SPREAD IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO AT LEAST LATE MORNING.
THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED, SO WILL KEEP THE PROB30 MENTION GOING
FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS TO A TWO TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITY
COULD DROP TO VFR WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THUNDERSTORMS.
CLOUDS WILL BUILD THIS EVENING & BECOME BKN/OVC OVERNIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
4-10 AM, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER THIS ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THE GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 KTS.
KMSP...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 5-10 AM. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE THUNDER
CHANCES MAY END UP BEING HIGHER FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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