696
FXUS63 KMPX 081932
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TEMPERATURES JUST AFTER NOON TODAY HAD ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREA WIDE, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME GETTING ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN NEARLY A
WEEK FOR MOST LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING TDS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. A WARM
FRONT LIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BRAINERD AND BEMIDJI AND A THUNDERSTORM
HAS GONE UP JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. ALOFT, A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THIS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY. THE AREA THAT SEES THE OVERLAP OF THESE TWO
FEATURES IS LIKELY TO BE SMALL, BUT HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE,
HOWEVER, DOES NOT MEAN HIGH CHANCE. BECAUSE THIS SET UP IS SO
CONDITIONAL, POPS HAVE BEEN KNOCKED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TODAY WILL KEEP 30-50% POPS IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE BY MID AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A SECOND,
MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
QPF TOTALS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING ARE AROUND
0.25" OR LESS, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR OUR WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FOGGY START TO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING SETS UP
SHOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY MAKE A
(FINAL?) RUN AT 90 ON SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN
OUR HIGHS THIS PAST WEEKEND. A SMATTERING OF < 25% POPS EXISTS
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO AT LEAST LATE MORNING.
THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED, SO WILL KEEP THE PROB30 MENTION GOING
FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS TO A TWO TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITY
COULD DROP TO VFR WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THUNDERSTORMS.
CLOUDS WILL BUILD THIS EVENING & BECOME BKN/OVC OVERNIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
4-10 AM, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER THIS ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THE GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 KTS.
KMSP...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 5-10 AM. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE THUNDER
CHANCES MAY END UP BEING HIGHER FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...ETA
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