002
FXUS63 KMPX 090543
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TEMPERATURES JUST AFTER NOON TODAY HAD ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREA WIDE, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME GETTING ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN NEARLY A
WEEK FOR MOST LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING TDS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. A WARM
FRONT LIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BRAINERD AND BEMIDJI AND A THUNDERSTORM
HAS GONE UP JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. ALOFT, A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THIS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY. THE AREA THAT SEES THE OVERLAP OF THESE TWO
FEATURES IS LIKELY TO BE SMALL, BUT HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE,
HOWEVER, DOES NOT MEAN HIGH CHANCE. BECAUSE THIS SET UP IS SO
CONDITIONAL, POPS HAVE BEEN KNOCKED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TODAY WILL KEEP 30-50% POPS IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE BY MID AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A SECOND,
MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
QPF TOTALS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING ARE AROUND
0.25" OR LESS, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR OUR WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FOGGY START TO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING SETS UP
SHOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY MAKE A
(FINAL?) RUN AT 90 ON SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN
OUR HIGHS THIS PAST WEEKEND. A SMATTERING OF < 25% POPS EXISTS
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MN, ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SD. HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. OPTED TO LEAN
ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MN TERMINALS, WHERE
WEAKER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN LESS OF A PRECIPITATION
FOOTPRINT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT
MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LATER TODAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PROB30S
IS TIED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS.
KMSP...LLWS SETUP REMAINS MARGINAL AND WILL IMPROVE EARLY IN
THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL THEME SHOULD BE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. INSTEAD, THE GREATER FOCUS
IS FROM 18-24Z, WHEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A
PROB30 FOR THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...STRUS
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