762
FXUS63 KMPX 091955
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. WEEKEND HIGHS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS OF 230PM, REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DECAYING MCV OVER EASTERN MN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER W/NW WI. WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND WEAK SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. IN FACT, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALREADY.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING WITH AREAS SEEING UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN, ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IN
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY SPINS EAST, THE LATEST CAMS PINPOINT THE HIGHEST QPF
NEAR GOODHUE COUNTY IN MN & ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN WI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN WI, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW TO
NONE.
OUR GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
80S (AND LOWS IN THE 60S) LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY, SATURDAY, & SUNDAY.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS
GENERALLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK WAVES THAT CAN TAP INTO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE ON FRIDAY IS FAVORED TO STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MN, OTHERWISE THERE IS NO LARGE SIGNAL FOR
NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME STILL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER BEHIND THE RAIN, BUT STILL THINKING AN
EVENTUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS REACHING
OUR WISCONSIN SITES (PARTICULARLY KRNH), SO OPTED TO GO WITH A
PROB30.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOG DEVELOPS AREA
WIDE. WENT LIFR FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TERMINALS
WITH IFR FOR EVERYONE ELSE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER
13Z, BUT I THINK A RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...THE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAD BEEN DUE WEST OF MSP HAS
DETERIORATED QUITE A BIT, BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMKT HAVE
RE-INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE ARE PIVOTING
NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MCV CENTERED NEAR KRWF. THINK THESE WILL
MAKE IT TO MSP BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. LOW
END VFR/HIGH END MVFR SHOULD MOVE IN BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
SETTLING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...DYE
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