849
FXUS63 KMPX 100528
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1228 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. WEEKEND HIGHS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MCV CONTINUES EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN MN
EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MN, SPREADING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PLANNING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON A FEW
COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS OF 230PM, REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DECAYING MCV OVER EASTERN MN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER W/NW WI. WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND WEAK SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. IN FACT, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALREADY.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING WITH AREAS SEEING UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN, ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IN
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY SPINS EAST, THE LATEST CAMS PINPOINT THE HIGHEST QPF
NEAR GOODHUE COUNTY IN MN & ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN WI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN WI, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW TO
NONE.
OUR GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
80S (AND LOWS IN THE 60S) LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY, SATURDAY, & SUNDAY.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS
GENERALLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK WAVES THAT CAN TAP INTO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE ON FRIDAY IS FAVORED TO STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MN, OTHERWISE THERE IS NO LARGE SIGNAL FOR
NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME STILL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AFTER TUESDAY'S RAIN, CLEARING SKIES, AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
WE HAVE THE IDEAL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. EVERYONE WILL
SEE FOG, IT IS MORE HOW LONG DOES IT LAST AND AT TAF ISSUANCE
HOW LONG BEFORE IT SETS IN FOR WISCONSIN WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
STILL PRESENT. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR A RAPID DROP INTO FOG IS
EXPECTED. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS MID TO LATE MORNING A VFR DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED.
KMSP...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. AT TAF ISSUANCE MSP IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND AS
THIS CLEARS OUT A RAPID DECLINE IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED. A
RETURN TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC
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