848
FXUS63 KMPX 101115
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PEAKING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
WITH A WELL SATURATED AIRMASS AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAIN, CLEARING
SKIES, AND CALM WINDS WE HAVE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP
THIS MORNING. AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM WEST TO EAST FOG
HAS SETTLED IN AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS, IT HAS BEEN DENSE. EARLY
THIS MORNING WE ARE STILL SEE GOOD VISIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THANKS TO CLOUDS THAT
WERE SLOW TO CLEAR. AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT AND
ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. AFTER SUNRISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CLEAR OUT THE
FOG BY MID MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS COULD WELL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING.
WITH A RIDGE MOVING IN TODAY AND THEN SITTING ON TOP OF US
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WE WILL ENTER INTO A DRY PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE TROUGH OUT OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO WESTERN CONUS.
WHERE THERE IS MORE SPREAD, IS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS EASTERN LOW AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT TRACKS, WE COULD ENTER
INTO A BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS RIDGE WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY CONSISTENTLY IN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. IT IS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WE START TO SEE
MORE VARIABILITY WITH THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN IN SOME MEMBERS AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES TO MOVE IN. OVERALL STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN OCCURRING AS THERE ARE FEW MEMBERS
SHOWING RAIN AND THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVING A STRONG SIGNAL. IT IS
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT THERE IS MORE OF A SIGNAL
FOR RAIN WHEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST FINALLY STARTS TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS US.
IN SUMMARY LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE WITH THE PATTERN
CHANGE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT. SOME LOW STRATUS COULD KEEP CIGS MVFR INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT
NOT AS DENSE. HAVE KEPT THE FOG MENTIONS OUT OF THESE TAFS TO
GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE LEVEL OF IMPACT IN A FUTURE SET.
KMSP...URBAN HEAT ISLAND HAS BEEN KEEPING MSP WARMER AND DESPITE
MOST OTHER METRO AIRPORTS LIKE FCM, MIC, ANE, AND LVN FALLING TO
1/4SM MSP HAS REMAINED MVFR OR ABOVE ALL NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FOG AND STRATUS CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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