394
FXUS63 KMPX 041138
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD MAKE
ONE THINK ITS JUNE OR JULY IN MN/WI VERSUS OCTOBER. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM RANGE IN THE LOW 70S FOR A FAVORABLE AMOUNT
OF MN. ITS NOT UNTIL YOU REACH EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHERE
"COOLER" CONDITIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND. REGARDLESS, FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ITS HOT, AND THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS WILL REMAIN HOT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH CONTINUES TO DIRECT VERY WARM AIR UP
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST,
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUFFICIENT MIXING DOWN 925MB TEMPS
EXCEEDING +25C WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE RIGHT TAIL OF THE NBM
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE HOWEVER A FEW MID 90S
COULD BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
IN MIND, THERE ARE FAVORABLE CHANCES THAT A FEW SITES COULD SET
RECORD FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS WARM LOWS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY. A 45-50KT LLJ WILL REACH MN/WI THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
RAISE SUSTAINED WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30- 35KTS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS ELEVATED WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
HAS ALSO RAISED CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN TODAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PARENT TROUGHING PATTERN IN
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW IS PROGGED ENE'WARD AND WILL BRING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR MN/WI. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES HINT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN FAVORABLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
WARM (MID 80S) BUT THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE FELT ON MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS. FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WARMER MINTS THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DECREASE
CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI COULD SEE PATCHY FROST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR. THIS TIME HOWEVER, THE
WARMER AIRMASS DOESN'T APPEAR AS POTENT AS OUR CURRENT HEAT
EVENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR WITH AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CU TODAY. MAIN CONCERN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE CONTINUED MENTIONS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SPEEDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 25-35KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SITES HAVE MENTIONS
OF 30-35KT LLWS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER
14Z HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER 45-50KT LLWS IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KMSP...CONTINUED MENTIONS OF LLWS THROUGH 14Z. PREVAILING WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INCREASING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING FOLLOWED BY 30 TO 35KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF 45KT LLWS IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, FROPA OCCURS
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 15-20G30-35KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 10-15G30 BCMG NW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
RECORD LOWS/HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND:
SAT SUN
MSP68/89 63/88
STC64/8858/89
EAU67/86 64/84
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLIMATE...BORGHOFF
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