263
FXUS63 KMPX 041740
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
MAKE ONE THINK ITS JUNE OR JULY IN MN/WI VERSUS OCTOBER. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM RANGE IN THE LOW 70S FOR A FAVORABLE
AMOUNT OF MN. ITS NOT UNTIL YOU REACH EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
WHERE "COOLER" CONDITIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND.
REGARDLESS, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ITS HOT, AND THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WILL REMAIN HOT. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH CONTINUES
TO DIRECT VERY WARM AIR UP INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF SUFFICIENT MIXING DOWN 925MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +25C WHICH
REMAINS NEAR THE RIGHT TAIL OF THE NBM TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE HOWEVER A FEW MID 90S COULD BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND, THERE ARE FAVORABLE
CHANCES THAT A FEW SITES COULD SET RECORD FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS
WARM LOWS TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. A 45-50KT LLJ WILL REACH
MN/WI THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RAISE SUSTAINED WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30- 35KTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS ELEVATED WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HAS ALSO RAISED CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PARENT TROUGHING PATTERN IN
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW IS PROGGED ENE'WARD AND WILL BRING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR MN/WI. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES HINT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN FAVORABLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
WARM (MID 80S) BUT THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE FELT ON MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS. FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WARMER MINTS THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DECREASE
CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI COULD SEE PATCHY FROST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR. THIS TIME HOWEVER, THE
WARMER AIRMASS DOESN'T APPEAR AS POTENT AS OUR CURRENT HEAT
EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC TONIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-60 KTS WILL CREATE SOME WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST, THEN NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, MOSTLY AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. LEFT A PROB30 OUT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW, BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF STORMS. WILL REASSESS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 15-20G30-35KTS BCMG NW 10-15
KTS LATE.
MON-TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
RECORD LOWS/HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND:
SAT SUN
MSP 68/89 63/88
STC 64/88 58/89
EAU 67/86 64/84
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
CLIMATE...BORGHOFF
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