497
FXUS63 KMPX 042321
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH RECORD
HIGHS AND LOWS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH MIXING DOWN 925 MB
TEMPS OF 25-27C AND GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE THERMAL RIDGE.
SCATTERED DECK OF MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFORE WE
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET STREAK SET
UP OVERHEAD, SUPPORTING WIND GUST UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SITES THAT OBSERVE SPORADIC GUSTS OF 40+ MPH
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SITES
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THIS IS THE PART WHERE I REMIND EVERYONE OUR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE MID 60S FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
A POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL SD TO NORTHWEST MN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING. THE
THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT. IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT, BUT THE WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MORNING'S
CAM RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD, DESPITE THE DRY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
FOR NEXT WEEK, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES & LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY & TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST LATER NEXT WEEK AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN RETURNS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER WAVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST EURO
WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
NOT COME AS A SURPRISE GIVEN FREQUENCY OF BLOCKING TIED TO THE
CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BE CALMER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY.
WITH THE LLJ CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT THIS WILL CREATE LLWS
AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING VARIES, SO CHECK ON INDIVIDUAL TAFS
FOR THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THIS FRONT PASSES
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME VFR, MAYBE MVFR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS LOW AND THE
IMPACT COULD WELL STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME. SO OPTED
TO KEEP THE SHRA MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST, SO
EAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOMETHING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...SAME HIGH WIND, LLWS, AND SHOWER CHANCE CONCERNS AS THE
MAIN DISCUSSION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
RECORD HIGHEST LOWS/HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND:
SAT SUN
MSP 68/89 63/88
STC 64/88 58/89
EAU 67/86 64/84
OBSERVED LOWS/HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MSP 72/91 RECORD HIGHEST LOW/HIGH
STC 67/90 RECORD HIGHEST LOW/HIGH
EAU 64/88 RECORD HIGHEST HIGH
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
CLIMATE...WFO MPX
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