201
FXUS63 KMPX 050830
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH RECORDS HIGHS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE BROKEN TODAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MORNING 'LOWS' ARE ALL BUT THAT EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE
THERMAL RIDGE, BUT IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS WARM AS SATURDAY'S
RECORD BREAKING HEAT. WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND SOUTHERLY, WITH
GUSTS ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE. THE LOW- LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTS WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND KNOCKS THEM DOWN QUITE A BIT. ANOTHER SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY (ACROSS
MINNESOTA) DUE TO THE BREEZY SUSTAINED WINDS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, YOU CAN SEE
WHAT IS TO COME ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING: SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE ISN'T IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR ANYTHING BEFORE NOON, BUT THERE ARE
A FEW OUTLIERS THAT DO SHOW A LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AROUND 9AM. WHILE THESE PRE-FRONTAL CHANCES
CAN'T COMPLETELY BE WRITTEN OFF (LESS THAN 20%), THE GREATER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW PASS THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS
COVERAGE GOES, THINGS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THE PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. TAKING THIS INTO
CONSIDERATION, ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR RAIN CHANCES (50%) IS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (3PM ONWARD). ALL WILL BE OUT OF
THE AREA (AND WINDOWS CAN FINALLY BE OPENED!) BY THE TIME MOST
GO TO BED TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH QUITE THE CONTRAST TO THIS MORNING:
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES LOWER, CREATING A TYPICAL CRISP FALL MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH EARLY WEEK, ALLOWING
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY OCTOBER. GIVEN FORECAST CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY NIGHT, PATCHY FROST IS TO BE
EXPECTED IN OUTER LYING AREAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES AND A FEW PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY 30-35KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ALL SITES. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20KTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 00-03Z MONDAY.
SW'LY LLWS BETWEEN 50-55KTS WILL LINGER THROUGH ~14Z THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING FROPA. COVERAGE LOOKS
BEST FOR OUR WI SITES HENCE INTRODUCTION OF PROB30 MENTIONS
BETWEEN 19-03Z TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MENTIONS
MAY NEED TO EXTEND WESTWARD TO MSP/STC BASED OFF OF FORECAST
TRENDS LATER TODAY.
KMSP...SAME CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE MAIN AVIATION
DISCUSSION. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO HINT AT BRIEF A PERIOD OF
PRECIP AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING BUT FELT THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
WAS TOO DRY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WAS RELUCTANT
TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF SHRA DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO WI
SITES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 0330 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2025
RECORD HIGHEST LOWS/HIGHS TODAY:
SUN
MSP 63/88
STC 58/89
EAU 64/84
OBSERVED LOWS/HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MSP 72/91 RECORD HIGHEST LOW/HIGH
STC 67/90 RECORD HIGHEST LOW/HIGH
EAU 64/88 RECORD HIGHEST HIGH
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLIMATE...WFO MPX
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