008
FXUS63 KMPX 061138
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
ALL SHOWERY ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
OF THE MIDNIGHT CLIMATE RUN, AREAS RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. WINDS HAVE
ALSO SUBSIDED BASED OFF OF LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A TROUGH AXIS MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGHOUT TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, FLOW ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A JETSTREAK OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND CAUSING
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTHEASTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON THEN UP THROUGH EAU CLAIRE, WI BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONSIST OF LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REACH
THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S, AND EVEN MID-20S ACROSS NE'RN MN! THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY UP IN THAT REGION WHERE FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WHEREAS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST. COME THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK, THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT THE WARM UP WILL NOT BE LIKE OUR MOST RECENT WARM UP
WHERE WE SAW 90S. THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 70S
WHICH IS STILL CONSIDERED SEASONABLY WARM. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GOES PRETTY DORMANT UNTIL NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE DRAPING MSP AND EAST, BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES.
CURRENTLY OVER AXN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO ANY TERMINALS (NAMELY, MKT) IS LOW AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLOW IN SPEED TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS, AND REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BACKING TO THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY.
KMSP...PESKY STRATUS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MSP IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH THE BACK EDGE OVER STC RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, NO
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT CLEAR
OUT LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO ANY TERMINALS IS LOW AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF ALL BUT A PROB30 AT EAU AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL (<10%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
LATER THIS MORNING, BUT NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...PV
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