809
FXUS63 KMPX 091150
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS & PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY LEADS TO WETTER WEATHER LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN WHAT
THEY WERE 24-HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, A FEW SITES IN WESTERN WI
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HWY 63 CORRIDOR, COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS THAT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS, WHICH IS A PRECURSOR TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE THROUGH
MN/WI LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ENHANCED WARMING
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO A STRONG 30-40KT 850MB LLJ. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 20-25KTS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE HIGHS
COULD REACH THE MID-70S. ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI, UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. FORCING WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SINKS DOWN FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES REGION THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER TO WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUCH AS THE NAM OR GFS FEATURE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE THAT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO
LOSING SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
BE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AS A ~3KFT DRY SURFACE
LAYER WILL EXIST. AS OF NOW, FORECAST QPF RANGES FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR A TENTH INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED TO
WESTERN WI.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CONDITIONS
TURN QUIET FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROVIDED A SHIFT TO NW'LY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO A MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AND BECOME SW'LY WITH TROUGHING OCCURRING OVER THE
DAKOTAS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE POTENTIAL OF SEEING
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF MN AND WI. PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MN
COULD SEE AS MUCH A HALF-INCH OF RAINFALL WHEREAS FARTHER
EASTWARD SEEING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER LIKELY SYSTEM FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK
PROVIDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT A LINE OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD IMPACT KSTC, KMSP,
KRNH AND KEAU. CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 FOR THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS, BUT MAY TRANSITION TO A TEMPO CLOSER TO WHEN IT
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF, WITH PERHAPS A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
THUNDER, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AFTER THEY PASS THROUGH.
KMSP...CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER, BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST, BUT THEN A
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G20KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JRB
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