047
FXUS63 KMPX 101042
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EAU WHERE WE HAVE 30-40% POPS. CLEAR SKIES
OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY,
ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY FRIDAY. BREEZIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING
THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL US SLIGHTLY TO END THE WEEK WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY). ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. HERE, MINIMUM RHS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND, COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRIER VEGETATION, COULD ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GET A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FROST WILL BE NEAR JMR AND IN OUR
NORTHERN WI COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JETSTREAK
SWING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR WAA OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, CAUSING SUNDAY'S HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO EVEN UPPER 70S IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. HOWEVER, SUNDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NICE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS FOR OUR
REGION USING A BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WAA
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, SLOWLY MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULDN'T
BE TOO SIGNIFICANT BUT THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE ENTIRE AREA
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.1-0.2". WESTERN MN CURRENTLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE CLIMBING TO NEAR 0.8".
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLIER MONDAY,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TANDEM, ENDING PRECIPITATION AND
COOLING US TO START THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WILL SEE
HIGHS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA
SHOULD SEE THESE VALUES FOR TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE
PARTICULARLY COOL WHERE LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OVER CENTRAL MN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE, THOUGH, AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS MID-NEXT WEEK. ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO EVEN SLIGHT
RIDGING BECOMES FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
LATER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR WAA INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO BUILD. THIS
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUCH THAT
FORECAST MODELS DEVELOP PERIODS OF QPF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AFTER WEDNESDAY. THOUGH, THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAS JUST RESULTED
IN A SMEARING 20-40% POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. WE'LL
HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EAU WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FLIPPING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THIS
EVENING. GUSTS WILL NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOW TO
UNDER 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TURN CLOCKWISE OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN
MN TERMINALS REACHING SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY. WIND SE 15-20G30KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG
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