926
FXUS63 KMPX 030528
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY AND 25 MPH TOMORROW.
- A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK FALLING DOWN INTO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
- A FEW MINOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO MIX IN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST DISCUSSION A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED THE LOW IN
CANADA HAS PROVIDED FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL APPROACHES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL QUITE DRY, SO MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN REMAINS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIME. THIS LATER PASSAGE TIME ALLOWS FOR SOME COOLING
AND THEREFORE HIGHER SATURATION TO ALLOW FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
BRINGING WITH IT CLEARING SKIES.
THE HIGHER PRESSURE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A DECENT FALL DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TOMORROW. MAIN DOWNSIDE WILL BE THAT IT WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOESN'T FULLY LET UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE TOP
WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 50S, MAYBE EVEN SOME 60S DEPENDING ON
SKY COVER, AS WAA RAMPS UP AGAIN. ALSO BY TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL
HAVE CALMED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTENS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN RATHER DISPERSIVE AT THE MOMENT
WITH WHICH HAS KEPT NBM POPS ON THE LOWER END. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURDAY
WAVE WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COLD AIR DOWN WITH IT SUCH THAT LOW
TRACKS WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. SOME OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOW
TRACKS OVER IOWA COULD PROVIDE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN FOR US.
WE ARE AFTER ALL NOW FULLY IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE BEING ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS EITHER MIXED PRECIPITATION OR
SNOW. STILL LOOKING AT THE MAIN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN LOW OR ZERO, OUTSIDE OF OUTLIERS. THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THE
HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE) SNOW CONFIDENCE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SO NO NEED TO GET YOUR
SHOVELS/PLOWS/BLOWERS READY YET, BUT WE ARE GETTING CLOSER AND
CLOSER TO NEEDING IT EVERY DAY AS WE SEE LESS AND LESS SUN ON
THE APPROACH TO THE WINTER SOLSTICE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WINDS HAVE TURNED WNW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS NEAR EAU AND SHOULD OBSERVE THE
WIND SHIFT EARLY IN THE 06Z PERIOD. IT'S STILL A LITTLE GUSTY
OUT THERE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH SHOULD SEE
OBSERVATIONS LOSE THE GUSTS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A MARGINAL LLWS SETUP APPEARS
MOST FAVORABLE AT STC/RNH EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. NO MAJOR
CONCERNS HEADING INTO MONDAY, AS WE'LL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD. WINDS SUSTAIN 10-15KTS AND GUST UP TO 20KTS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE BCMG E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...STRUS
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