730
FXUS63 KMPX 031954
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI, WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
- WEDNESDAY, BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND EARLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.
- PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION, AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE
DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94, WHERE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS IN THE LOWER 30S TO
UPPER 20S. LATER THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS
THE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ON TUESDAY, THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH TO THE WEST
IS REPLACED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO A NICE FALL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN , WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. FARTHER NORTH, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF I-94, BUT AREAS TO THE
SOUTH CAN EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE THEIR FIRST SNOW OF THE
SEASON, BUT THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS SNOW WILL
FALL. THE TWO MAIN VARIABLES WILL BE THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND STRENGTH OF AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATE THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AND DRIVE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LOW TRACK ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO ACTIVATE AS IT MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN.
FOR THIS REASON, CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MUCH LESS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
(5 PERCENT) THAN THEY ARE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN (50 PERCENT), WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND BANDED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO EITHER MINNESOTA OR IOWA.
SINCE THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW, AND IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS ON THE
STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION. IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHERE, OR HOW MUCH,
WITH AND CONFIDENCE, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS WE DRAW
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TODAY, TOWARD SOUTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AT
TIMES, BUT THESE WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH NO AVIATION CONCERNS. EXPECT
WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH DECREASING GUSTS TOWARD SUNSET. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15G30 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SW15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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